benjamin graham books

The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12

April 8, 2022 by Laxman Sonale 3 Comments

Hello friends, in today’s article, we see The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12, this chapter is all about the margin of safety while you invest in the stock market. so let’s understand this concept in the author’s words.

Previous Chapter 11

Dhandho 401: Margin of Safety – Always

In this chapter, the author refers the Benjamin graham’s book, the intelligent investor, the key idea of investing, and also the importance of the Margin of Safety. the author also gives examples of Warren Buffett’s investments.

so let’s understand it

the author says, ” Mr. Buffett hosts business school students from over 30 universities every year. The schools represent a wide range from Harvard and Yale to the University of Tennessee and Texas A&M.

the students get to ask him questions on almost any subject for over an hour before heading out to have lunch with Mr. Buffett at his favorite Steakhouse.

virtually every group asks Mr. Buffett for Book Recommendations. Mr. Buffett’s Consistent Best Book recommendation for several decades has been Benjamin Graham the “Intelligent Investor”

As he stated to students from Columbia Business in Omaha, Nebraska On March 24, 2006

The Intelligent Investor is still the best book on Investing, it has only three ideas you read need

Chapter 8 – the Mr. Market analogy. Make the Stock Market Serve you. the C section of the Wall Street Journal is my business broker it quotes me prices every day that I can take or leave and there are no called strikes.
A stock is a piece of a business. Never forget that you are buying a business that has an underlying value based on how much cash goes in and out.
Chapter 20 – Margin of Safety, Make sure that you are buying a business for way less than you think it is conservatively worth.

— Warren Buffett

Graham’s perspective on the importance of the margin of safety seems pretty straightforward and simple. recall that Einstein’s five ascending levels of intellect were ” Smart, Intelligent, Brilliant, Generous, simple.”

When we buy an asset for substantially less than what it’s with, we reduce downside, risk, Graham’s Genious Was that he fixated on these two joint Realities.

The bigger the discount to intrinsic value the lower the risk.
the bigger the discount to intrinsic value, the higher the return.

Then the author talks about, papa Patel and Manilal and Branson’s Dhandho with Margin of safety

the author says, ” Papa Patel, & Manilal have likely never heard of Benjamin-Graham. Branson too has likely never read any of Graham’s books.

Their Dhandho journeys have always been all about the Minimization of risk. They’ve always fixated on the seemingly bizarre notion of ” the lower the risk, the higher the rewards.” (The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12)

Most of the top-ranked business schools around the world do not understand the fundamentals of margin of safety or Dhandho. for them, low risk and low returns go together as do high risk and high returns.

Over a lifetime, we all encounter scores, of low-risk, high-return bets. they exist in all facets of life. Business schools should be educating their students on how to seek out and exploit these opportunities.”

then the author gives, the example of Margin of Safety

the author says, ” One of the most vivid examples of margin of safety at work in the equity markets is Warren Buffett.

Observations about his purchase of the Washington Post in 1973.

We bought all of our { Washington Post ( WPC)} holding in Mid-1973 at a price of not more than one-fourth of the then per-share business value of the enterprise.

Calculating the price/value ratio required no unusual insights, most security analysts media, brokers, and media executives would have estimated WPC’s intrinsic business value at $400 to $500 million just as we did, and if $100 million stock market valuation was published daily for all to see.

Our Advantage, rather, was attitude; we had learned from Ben Graham that the key to successful investing was the purchase of shares in good businesses when market prices were at a large discount from underlying business values.

— Through 1973, and 1974, WPC continued to do fine as a business, and its intrinsic value grew. Nevertheless, by year-end 1974 our WPC holding showed a loss of about 25% with a market value of $8 million against our cost of $106 million. (The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12)

What we had bought ridiculously cheap a year earlier had become a good bit cheaper as the market, in its infinite wisdom, marked WPC stock down to well below 20 cents in the dollar of intrinsic value.

….. Warren Buffett

then author explains, how warren Buffett, gets this company at discounted prices

the author says, ” As inside, Mr. Buffett hasn’t sold a single share a Washington Post over the past 30 years of holding the stock.

that’s original $10.6 million dollar investment is now worth over $1.3 billion over 124 times the original investment. the Washinton post pays a modest dividend, now paid by the past to Berkshire Every year, exceeding the Amount Mr. Buffett paid for the stock in the first place.

Why was the Washinton Post Trading at such a large discount to intrinsic value in 1973/1974?

Mr. Buffett goes on to offer an explanation. Most institutional investors in early 1970, on the other hand, regarded business value as only mirror relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell.

this now seems hard to believe however these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching a newly fashioned theory;

the stock market was totally efficient and therefore calculations of business value and even thought, itself, were of no importance in investment activities.

Warren Buffett says, ” We are enormously indebted to those academics what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest – whether it be a bridge, chess, or stock selection than have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?”

Over the past 20 years, there hasn’t been much change in the thinking of institutional investors with regard to market efficiency as stated by charlie Munger when speaking at the 2004 Wesco annual meeting.

Charlie Munger:- Very few people have adopted our approach… maybe two percent of people will come into our corner of the tent, and the rest of the ninety-eight percent will believe what they’re been told ( p.g. that markets are totally efficient.)

It is instructive to note that Mr. Buffett bought his Washinton post stake at a 75% discount to intrinsic value.

As Benjamin Graham told Senator Fulbright, all discounts, to intrinsic value eventually lose.

Mr. Buffett knew that this gap was likely to close in a few years, whenever I make investments, I assume that the Gap is highly likely to close in three years or less. (The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12)

My own experience as a professional investor over the past seven years has been that the vast majority of gaps close in under 18 months.

Mr. Buffett has his Washinton Post stake for about $6.15 per share in $25 per share. let’s assume that the Washington Post got to at least 90% of its intrinsic value increased by a modest 10% a year.

So, in 1976, the business would be worth over $33.28 per share ( $25 * 1.1 * 1.1* 1.1), and 90% of that is about $30. If a person bought the Stock in 1973 and sold it in 1976, the annualized return would be about 70% a year. Let’s the kelly Formula and this one, let’s assume the following conservative odds.

Odds of making 4 times or better return in three years – 80%

Odds of making 2 times to 4 times or better return in three years – 15%

Odds of Breakeven to 2 times – 4%

Odds of a Total loss – 1%

In this case, the Kelly formula suggests that an investor bet 98.7% of the available bankroll on this mouthwatering opportunity.

At the time, Berkshire Hathaway had a total market capitalization of about $60 million.

Available cash was likely a small fraction of this member. I’d estimate that Mr. Buffett likely used well over 25% of hrs available bankroll on this bet.”

then author explains, Graham’s Fixation on the Margin of Safety

author says, ” Graham’s fixation on the Margin of Safety is understandable. Minimizing downside risk while maximizing the upside is a powerful concept. It is the reason Mr. Buffett has a net worth of over $40 Billion. he got there by taking minimal risk while always maximizing returns.

Most of the time, assets trade hands at or above their intrinsic value. the key, however, is to wait patiently for that super-fast pitch down the center. (The Dhandho Investor:- Chapter 12)

it is during times of extreme distress and pessimism that rationality goes out the window and prices of certain assets go well below their underlying intrinsic value.

Extreme Distress can be caused by macro-events like 9/11 or the Cuban Missile Crisis. or they can be company-specific- for example, Tyco’s Stock Price collapse during the Dennis Kozlowski Corruption Scandal. We can not predict which asset classes are likely to get distressed next. however, if we only focus on a single asset class of Stocks, that encompasses thousands of businesses.

Virtually every week, specific businesses that trade on public markets see their prices collapse. At other times it might be an entire sector that gets written off. More rarely it might be an entire market sells off due to a macro-shock like 9/11

Papa Patel, Manilal, Branson, Graham, Munger, and Buffett have always fixated on a large Margin of Safety and gone to great lengths to seek out low-risk, high-return bets.

it is truly a fortunes’ Formula.”

So this is all about the Dhandho Investor Chapter 12.

Security Analysis:- Chapter 14

December 3, 2021 by Laxman Sonale 2 Comments

Hello friends, in this article, we see the chapter 14 summary of the book Security Analysis. Chapter 14 is all about the What is Preferred stocks, and their origin story, and also their advantage and disadvantage.

Previous Chapter 13

Preferred Stocks Analysis:-Security Analysis:- Chapter 14

So, from this chapter, we discuss the only preferred stocks, and their Analysis based on the Advantages and Disadvantages of the Investor to buy that preferred stocks. let’s start

The author told, In The Intelligent Book also is that Preferred stocks are not Attractive Investment, it is Unattractive Investment.

The author says, ” Preferred stocks represent an Unattractive form of investment.”

so let’s find out why

Because 1st reason is that the Preferred stocks Principle and their income return is limited. whatever they told first is that amount only paid by the company.

and Second Reason the author told, is that Those are Preferred stocks holder, they don’t have any Claim on company. or in the author’s words is that ” Interest payment gets at any cost.”

and also Author says, ” Preferred stocks are the Limitations of Bond and Stocks Mixers, and Preferred stocks are more vulnerable than bond at the worst Condition of company.” (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

Because preferred stocks have a claim after Bond Holder.

What is the difference Between Bond and Preferred Stocks? (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

Ans:

The difference is that those are bond interest is compulsory to pay by the company, if the company is not paying, this type of company called a Defaulter.

Those are preferred stocks Dividend payment depends on the Board of directors of the Company, they pay or not pay.

If a company’s earnings are good and also make more than the preferred stock’s dividend, so usually preferred stock payment is done, but in this claiming point of preferred stocks looks unusefulness ( no benefited ).

If Companies Perform Bad and they generate very low earning, so bondholders have a claim on the Asset of the company, but they don’t have Practical value of that asset just like, we discussed in the bond Analysis series in all previous chapters. (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

Because, If the business fails, then properties value also fail, means decreases

so Investor think and they make the general rule, ” Bond instruments form is not have the special advantage as compare to preferred stocks. If the company is good then preferred stocks and bonds are also good. If the company is bad, then the bond is also bad.”

Read this again and think above two lines.

But the author says, ” this type of investor thinking is not good. Preferred stocks are weaker than Bonds.”

Because, bondholders get the money but those are directors of the company, they stop preferred stocks dividends.

why this happen

Because, if the company is capable, but they don’t pay preferred stocks dividend, and they give a reason like, that the Company has the good time in future, for that purpose they suspend the dividends of the preferred stocks. and say if the company grows, then you get the benefit also. for example, like, the company wants to expand.

that’s why they try to collect cash and save cash or in future any emergencies come, for that emergencies, they save the cash to deal with that problem. (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

so this happens with preferred stocks dividends.

so those are preferred stocks holder have the following types of conflict problem

Conflict of Interest come to Preferred stocks Holder:- Security Analysis Chapter 14

1 ) first is that what happens in the company I don’t care, I just want the continuous income.

2) Second is, If Company suspends the dividend, in the future, the company will perform well and become a great company.

and If the company uses the proper money of the holder of the preferred stock, then they get a good return on that money in the future.

so these two types of conflict of interest come to preferred stocks holder, and also a conflict of interest come between preferred stocks holder and commons stocks holder

Because, if companies director stops payment of preferred stocks dividend, then this money helps to build a company or grow the company.

so Because of this activity, common stocks holder get more benefits than the holder of the preferred stock

how this when, let’s see

When a company grows, then earing grows and share price is also growing so that’s benefit goes to the Common Stocks holder.

Preferred Stocks holders, not get the benefit of the company growth, because they get regular, whatever the dividend payment. This payment depends on what decides when we buy that preferred stocks.

So being great company, they don’t get benefit or advantage of that great company, as much as we see one side.

On the Other Side, The common Stocks Holder gets a benefit on earning and the preferred stockholder gets a benefit on companies expenses.

And also Board of Director of companies have also the conflict of Interest

Many times, they favor Common stocks holder, more than preferred stockholders, because they give the vote for the selection of companies’ board of directors. (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

Or In many times, the board of directors is not favored for common stocks holders, instead of that, they favor Management people.

Because, they get the salary, from the management. so many times, they don’t see the best interest of the common stockholder or preferred stocks holder, instead of that, they only see their own best interest.

Then the author says, ” this is the weakness of preferred stocks holder as compared to the bondholder.”

there is only one solution is that Preferred stocks holder has to be voting rights on the enterprise when the dividend is suspended by the director, then preferred stocks holder have to be immediately voting control to put money in the right place.

But practically is not happening. If in any company happen like this then preferred stockholder not take good advantage of that voting right.

So this thing of control also becomes useless.

Then after this author says, ” Yield or risk is not Commensurable.”

High Yield is not offset High risk

If you buy preferred stocks, and you have fear is that you will lose your principal amount and for this offer company give you a high dividend yield. so for this, they don’t offset.

What thing is offset is the thing is you have to get a good chance of principle profits, without losing it.

let’s see some qualifications of preferred stocks

Qualification of Preferred Stocks:

Here is one question come is that what criteria to buy preferred stocks

The author says, ” there are Three criteria for buying preferred stocks.”

1) Preferred stocks, have to fulfill the Minimum requirement of bonds

2) Exceed these minimum requirements by a margin to offset discretionary Feature of Dividend payment ( means those bonds minimum requirements, they have to exceed well with good margin)

Because we have those risks ( which risk) is the board of directors of the company can suspend our dividend payment, because, they have the power for this.

then author show, the 21 companies list, in those company have preferred stocks that were listed on New York Stock Exchange in 1932.

Between 21 companies only 5 companies perform well in depression also.

then, the author says, ” Sound Preferred stocks are not impossible things, but it is exceptional phenomena.”

exceptional because sound preferred stocks are the mistakes of the company. (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

Why mistake,

The mistake is, because, the company can issue bonds but they issue preferred stocks.

If they issued the bond, they get the Tax benefit, but on preferred stocks, they don’t get that benefit.

If preferred stocks perform well, then the company don’t get benefit from them, because the preferred stockholder is only benefited.

and on dividend company have to pay tax.

The author says, ” Issuing preferred stocks only benefits the company, because, they can stop any time dividend of preferred stocks.”

If the company is not suspending the dividend of preferred stocks, then the benefit is going to the holder of the preferred stock, because, company issues bonds but they issue preferred stocks and they don’t get tax benefits also.

Now some Investor says, Like that, We don’t agree with this, because the company is giving limited income to the preferred stocks and the company can invest properly money, that comes from by issuing preferred stocks and can get the better return on their investment ( that money come from by issuing preferred stocks). Whatever company pay to preferred stockholder on that basis company earn double profit. so this benefit gets the company.

But, the author tries to say is that ” the main purpose of preferred stocks is that company can suspend dividend at any time.”

So in this case, then the author is right.

Because in this case the only company is benefited

If the dividend suspends the loss goes to the preferred stockholder and if the dividend payments, then the company gets lost. (Security Analysis Chapter 14)

So if this type of Problem happen in preferred stocks, then why this is very much popular ( in 1940 before)

then the author says, ” just before the first world war, the majority preferred stocks is the industrial issues and they have speculative natures.”

Because they get discounted price than the par value. so profit possibility is moe and after that continue for 15 years got prosperity in the USA in 1920 on this basis preferred stocks give the awesome return.

On this basis, preferred stocks perform better than bonds, but actually, that is not.

Then the author talks about the study of the University of Michigan.

The University recently study ( 1940) and then, the author observes and prove that

Preferred stocks are without bond is better than preferred stocks with bond.

This means, If a company issue bond and preferred stocks and you buy preferred stocks of this company so this is not a wonderful idea, instead of that you can buy the preferred stocks of those company that don’t issue bonds.

When adverse development happens means depression/ recession comes, then company earnings decrease, so in that, if the company has issued the bond, then this bond gets benefited, than preferred stocks. so buy only those companies’ preferred stocks, they are not issued the bonds.

The other thing, the author observe from the Michigan university’s study is that preferred stocks stability depends on common stocks stability.

If common stocks decline then preferred stocks also decline.

then Author says,” is like, if Head’s come win common stocks, and if tail comes, preferred stocks lose.”

Why do common stocks holder win?

Because Heads means the good performance of the company and common stocks holder get unlimited capital gain.

And tail means, Company perform badly then preferred stocks also decline in values, as same as common stocks holder.

If Investor Analysis is good and they think in the future company give a multi-bagger return, then why do you buy preferred stocks instead that buying common stocks and participating in profit.

If the Investor is doubtful then buy the preferred stocks, why this doing is good

because they have to take risk of principle by buying Common stocks.

so they get lost, so they don’t have to do, at that point they get the good opportunity to principle profit.

so this is all about Chapter 14 of the Security Analysis book by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd.

Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2

June 17, 2021 by Laxman Sonale 2 Comments

Hello friends, in today’s article we see chapter 2 of Benjamin Graham and David dodd book Security Analysis. Chapter 2 is all about the Fundamental Elements in the problem of analysis. Quantitative and qualitative Factors. So let’s see what is the problem of analysis from Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s book i.e. Security Analysis chapter 2.

In Previous Chapter 1, we talk about the what is the analysis.

Now Imagine, analysts start the work and how they approach the particular problem, and what is that?

The objective of Security Analysis of stocks:-

There are two objectives of security analysis, this objective has to be answered by the analyst.

1) What securities should be bought for a given Purpose?

Because in this we have to focus on what we need, and what is your purpose and also what result you expect on that basis you can buy the securities.

2) Should the issue of Security Be bought, Sold, or retained?

To find these two objectives, we have to consider four factors.

1) The Security

2) The Price

3) The Time

4) The Person

In account taking the above four-factor, we can rephrase the second objective just like

A particular Individual at Particular Security can buy, sell or Hold for a particular price and a Particular time.

So let’s go reverse the Sequence of Four factors to make security analysis simple.

I) The Person:-

The person to person what they want, like they want tax assumption upon that they can buy Security.

For Tax assumption, they can buy the Low yield Securities. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

Or If they can pay Tax, then they can be the High yield Securities.

So this determines the needs of that person’s decision on securities and your decision also depends on time.

So the question that comes to your mind is how on time, so let’s see

How on time, In 1931, the Average return on bonds was 4.3% and, the railroad companies’ high-grade bonds give the 5% yield, so this was an attractive opportunity at that time.

But this same bond becomes Unattractive after 6 months and yield increases up to 5.86% from 4.3%.

When in 1931. the yield of the bond was 4.3% at that time the bond is given 5.2% from the Railroad company. And this was fixed, Whatever the year of maturity of that bond in five years or 10 years.

But in the Market, we get the 5.86% and you get only 5.2%. you get the loss as compared to market rates is 5.86% so this same bond is one time is Attractive and other time is Unattractive.

So your decision also depends on Time.

II) The Price:-

The High-grade bond price was not important when you select high-grade bonds.

Because, their price was rarely high, this happen in 1940 by the author.

So the Most attention was given to this the bond was more Secure or not.

If a bond price was high and then the bond adequately secure then also you have a maximum chance of lose, and also in common stocks have more chance of losing. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

if you paid the wrong price then you got the loss. This like following quote,

” Buying at wrong price stocks is as much as risky as buying wrong stocks.”

III) The Security:-

The Security and price both are going together.

the Author said, ” Aking this, Which security we have to invest and how much price were we pay for that, Instead that, you have to ask this was what enterprise, we have to invest and in which term we had to invest.”

In terms, not only price come, but they also include, stocks provision of issues and its status issues.

to understand these terms author given two examples,

(1) Commitment On Unattractive Term:-

In this we see, Before 1929, the Urban realistic value constantly increasing for a long time and this investment people think, it was safe, But those terms of issues were disadvantaged able.

Preferred stocks of New York Cities real estate, this provision of issue, was this ranking was junior and unqualified right is not available on dividends payment and status of issues is the New Building was constructing, for that this bond issued for raise money. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

This was so high-cost construction and there was no reserve for facing a hard time of the company.

Now let’s talk about the price. The price was that the dividend return was 6% and this return was very less than second mortgages but for taking this, there were plenty of advantages

so think these preferred stocks buy or not.

Let’s discuss the second commitment on Attractive terms.

(2) Commitment on Attractive Terms:

In 1932, Brooklyn railroad company sold the 5% yield bonds at $60 and 9.8% Yield of majority.

and the Railway industry is a takeover by the automobile industry.

So unattractive industry was, so let’s see what is the provision

the value of an investment for that this company was raising money, that value is more than that money was raised.

so this company stocks has stable and adequate earning power to pay interest payment and principle and this power is more time than this.

So let’s see the price so this companies bond price was very less than the other companies of subordinate bonds.

But this company price has to be high, generally, those are high-quality bonds, which has high price and yield is minimum, but

In this case, the price is low and the yield is high.

So this company yield was 9.3% and another company yield was 9% and this Brooklyn railroad companies bond also low quality. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

So author said, ” tell me which security, we have to buy or not”

So from these two examples, the main question was What was more beneficial and profitable.

In the Attractive company buy the security at unattractive terms.

in the unattractive company buy the security at attractive terms.

So the Attractive term was more important than the attractive company (enterprises) and Author also said, ” those were untrained buyers who don’t know how to buy for them, Buy the best and high-quality securities of reputable companies.

Because they don’t know about other things and they don’t have knowledge of other things.

But Those are expert buyers, this people sacrifice some quality because they don’t need that much quality. They buy that much quality for what they need and don’t need more quality.

just like that when you buy a watch, shoes or clothes. If this thing is looking good on you and have adequate quality then why you need the branded and expensive shoes just for looking good and for showing off for this you don’t need maximum quality, and also this is not like that every after the three-day watch is going stop and every time required the watchmaker, then this type of quality doesn’t need. we just need the adequate quality and look goods on us. Same like that those who need the maximum security then they can buy the expensive or high-grade bond of a popular company.

From this, we get the two principles

I) Untrained Security Buyer:

In this those are a weak company or unpopular, then untrained buyer can’t put money in this, because they do, they lose the money. So this is only for the untrained buyer.

II) Security Analysts:

In This point, the author says, ” Nearly every issue might be conceivably cheap in one price range and dear in another.”

So untrained buyers have to stick with that principle, which is the highest quality principle because they have a maximum risk for another place because they don’t have much knowledge of other places. so for those that are popular, that’s awesome good.

But for Analysts, this is not

If analysts think he is right in his judgment, then all world against him, they don’t have to leave that judgment. If their judgment is right, not like an egoist person and says my thinking is right.

Your thinking is wrong and you say, ” this is right so this type of behavior not expect. this like foolishness or stupidity. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

# Extent of Analysis:

How much we have to do analysis.

In this author says, ” Your practical judgment and your commonsense, how much you have to search deep.”

This author gives the examples

” One bond was that give 3% yield and other was those give 6% yield. So in a 3% yield bond, you have to do less analysis and in a 6% yield bond, you have to see this bond was well secure or not that gives a double return as compared to a 3% bond. so the most probability is that in maximum return the maximum risk in bonds.”

Then Author again says, ” What you do analysis depends on company to company and industry to industry, Like you see five years record of the railroad company and other company like chain store of Walmart. so you see in this company earning for five years, so that ok because this give the reasonable base of Safety.”

But you see oil Producing company and this company is not giving the reasonable bases of safety because this company business depends on external factor like the price of oil when they sell, and how much production in this year or future required this all depends on the external factor.

So they don’t produce maximum they have to produce whatever the demand of oil. If they do more, then the price is fall of that oil. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

So for this, you have to see which type of industry is also.

so the author says, there are two types of analysis

Types of Analysis:

I) Quantitative Analysis

II) Qualitative Analysis

so let’s see Quantitative Analysis

I) Quantitative Analysis:

In this analysis, you have to see companies statistical data like ( Income statement, Balance sheet, Cashflow, etc)

For this analysis, the author gives the four things about quantitative Analysis

A) Capitalization

B) Earnings and Dividends

C) Assets and Liabilities

D) Operating Statistics

This four-point we see in another chapter because this book is all about the quantitative basis.

so let’s see the qualitative analysis

II) Qualitative Analysis:

In this, the author gives the five things in this analysis

A) Nature of Business

B) Relative position of the company in Industry

C) Geographical and Operating characteristics

D) Character of Management

E) Outlook for company, industry, business in General

so in this chapter, we see some factors of qualitative analysis.

so let’s see one by one

A) Nature of Business:

In this factor, some businesses perform well at some time, and at that same time, some businesses perform badly.

Like that, In 1923-1929, the Generous prosperity time was going on and there is no crash or anything.

Cans manufacture, Cigarette manufacture and chain stores, and also motion picture company, these four company do the well in this period of 1923-1929. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

But at that same time other companies of the Cotton industry, plumber, paper industry perform badly in this time.

so thinking like that Those companies perform badly at that time and they also perform badly in future also, and those companies perform well in past and also perform well in future, so this thinking is very wrong.

Those companies perform very well or those companies perform very badly in the past so understand that Now time is come to change.

For this, the author gives examples of company

The Public Utility

this company is Unpopular in 1919 when boom happen.

that time, bu tin 1927-1929, this public utility company become speculative

In 1933 the Cotton Industry, which are depressed for a long time, in this time grow very fast.

So you have to see the Nature of the Business factor.

B) Factor of Management:

This factor is double count by the Stock market.

Let’s see how ” those stocks price are earning increases that reflect the stocks, and those companies management is good they also consider in a stocks price.

so this double counting is this for those companies have high earning as compared to the other companies because they are high because they have good management. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

so management is good than the earning is high and that why we say, stock market double count the Management.

C) Future Earnings Trend:

So in past the earning record is good and increases in past; then this is a good sign but this is not like that in past perform good and they also perform well in future.

So in this what happen in past is fact and what happens in future is pure Assumptions

So we don’t know, what is the trend in the future.

But, we say, in past the average of earning in that may be near in future.

So that much we can say

We can’t say that these are trends that remain the same.

So in this, you are absolutely right or absolutely wrong.

for this author give the two examples

a) In 1929, those railroad companies’ earnings were 5 times more than the interest rate charges for the past 7 years.

So we can make sound judgment in this bond is this investment is good on this bond, but something happen like economic collapse and recession come or any other stream event happens so in this period also company may handle his problem.

In reality, the depression comes after 1929, this company performs well in this situation also.

b) In 1929, the Public Utility company show continuous growth in earnings but fixed charges were so heavy that they consumed nearly all net Income. (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

But people think, This earning also continuous in future. so this prediction goes wrong and they got serious losses.

So people try to quantified the trends, often but it actually is a qualitative factor.

For this, The author says, ” Analysts have to consider future changes, this types of changes happen in future, but from that change, analysts don’t have to do profits from that

Instead of that, they have to guard the future changes

If you try to profits from that changes happen in the future, then you become optimistic, If you think to guard against changes, then you will become more alert.

D) Inherent Stability:

Inherent Stability is like Resistance to the change, which means They can resist the change.

If resist well then stability is good, which means those result in past, we can depend that result may be in future.

But stability is like a trend, People also do with this is quantified it.

but this is also the qualitative factor.

So this qualitative factor is derived by business nature, not a seeing statistical record, this is quantifiable.

So for this, the author gives the examples

E.g In 1932 the preferred stock issues of two companies one is Studebaker( this company sells the motors or manufactures them) and the other is First National Stores ( Grocery company). (Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 2)

for previous 8 years

The earnings covered dividends of Studebaker by 26.2 times and that of first National stores by 6.3 times.

So tell me which is better

so obviously Studebaker is good because this company was stable and earnings was 26.6 times than Fixed charges.

But the answer is BiG NO

You are saying by just seeing the data and you quantified them.

Groceries business is more stable because they have stable demand and diversified location and inventory turnover are Rapid.

Those companies that making the Motor, in this has the maximum variation because this depends on popular trends, and also people can buy, in that situation, so we have to adjust as their demand is.

so the company doesn’t have any immunity to those things for this problem.

So many times in quantitative we have to see them from a qualitative point of view to get the proper sense.

and qualitative things, if we try to quantify them and then you don’t have to depend on that

So lastly author says for decision making.

A statistical exhibit is a necessary though by no means a sufficient condition for a favorable decision by the analysts.

So this is all about chapter 2 of benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s book of security analysis.

Benjamin Graham Security Analysis: Chapter 1

June 9, 2021 by Laxman Sonale 1 Comment

hello friend, in today’s article we see chapter 1 of Benjamin Graham’s book is Security analysis. In chapter 1 Benjamin Graham explains the scope and limitations of Security Analysis and the concept of intrinsic value. so let’s start chapter 1 of Benjamin Graham Security analysis book.

Previous Chapter: Introduction of Security Analysis book

Part -I: Survey and Approach:-benjamin graham security analysis

In this book, this is divided into five parts, in this first part include the five chapter,

then let’s start with the first chapter

Chapter 1: The scope and limitations of Security Analysis. The Concept of Intrinsic Value:

Firstly Benjamin Graham define the Analysis

What is Analysis: Careful study of available facts with the attempt to draw conclusions therefrom based on established principles and sound logic behind that.

Some part of Security Analysis is Scientific and another part is Art and Chance.

In the stock market, you will be successful on the basis is decided by the Scientific method and your art and your destiny also.

So Benjamin Graham develops this method and warren Buffett uses this method and use their own art and become the world’s richest person and greatest investor of all time.

This means this method is also dependent on Art. How people handle this method artfully is also important.

These three things of combination decide you fail or succeed in the market. (benjamin graham security analysis)

The author says, ” People do analysis up to the 1927 year after that New Era starts and people don’t do any analysis.

the author also says, ” If they do proper analysis, then people know in 1937, the price of stocks is high and in 1938 the price of stocks is low of GEneral Electrics company. ( we talk in the previous Chapter)

The author says, ” There are three functions of Analysis.”

1) Descriptive

2) Critical

3) Selectives

1) Descriptive functions:

In this function, we study the companies’ important information, and we present this information in a very sensible way.

From this, we know, the company’s strong point and weak point and we compare this point to other companies’ points.

2) Critical Functions:

The critical function is, those investment finance principles and corporate finance methods, both are used to analysis of securities analysis.

We take analytical judgement on Security analysis, which is applied on both principles and method of corporate, so that why this is a critical function of analysis.

3) Selective Functions:

Express specific judgments of its own determination in this function.

Whether an issue should be bought, sold, retained, or exchanged for some other.

so author give some examples for judgments

let’s see one by one (benjamin graham security analysis)

1) In 1928, the company was Louis-San Francisco Railway. this company issued 6% Non-cumulative preferred stocks, but from the company record, we know that there was in the companies history, companies earnings, never go 1.5 times of Fixed charges.

Fixed charges are those charges we have to pay, whatever happens in the company in the form of Interest payment or lease payment.

So the author asks us, this company we have to buy or not.

the answer is Not to buy

So this judgment was just like that not to use the brain, just apply common sense.

2) In 1932, The company name was Owens-Illinois Glass company. this company bonds at 5% trade at $70 in market place and 11% yield to maturity in 1939.

This companies earnings were much time more than the fixed charges.

Up to in depression in this also the earning is more than the fixed charges.

The bond issue was well covered by companies asset. (benjamin graham security analysis)

This means the Current asset Value is secure in the bond issue.

This means this is more than sufficient for paying fixed charges.

So this company, we have to buy or not

Answer: In this company, we get the security we can buy this company, and we are benefited from this company.

3) In 1922, the company Wright Aeronautical corporation, this company stock trade at $8 in the market place and $1 is paying a dividend.

And earning per share is $2 and company cash asset is more than $8 per share.

So this company we have to buy or not.

Answer: Definitely buy,

Because $8 was the cash asset and they trade also at $8 and their earning also $2. so in this we know don’t have to do anything, just buy this company.

4) In 1928, Wright Aeronautical corporation, this companies stocks goes to $280 in just 6 years. means (35X) the companies earning were $9 per share and Dividends were $2 per share.

NAV( Net Asset Value) was less than $50 per share.

So this company, we have to buy or not?

Answer: Not to Buy

Because suppose $50 was Net Asset Value and Earnings is 8, so take P/E ratio 20 the highest ratio.

The $160 form earings, and $50 form NAV and both get $210 and we assume the highest P/E ratio. So this stock price is $280, so we required more than $70. So this is maximum so don’t have to buy this company. (benjamin graham security analysis)

5) In 1933, Interborough Rapid Transport selling 5% and 7% notes of two types at the same price.

So those were each 7% note was secured by $1736 face amount than 5% notes.

Individually both were $1,000 whatever that was 5% notes or 7% notes.

So those Were 5% which had a Price was $1000 and they are secured at a %1736 face amount.

Obviously in these 7% notes is better than 5% and the rate is the same, so buying 7% notes is more beneficial than 5%.

6) In 1936, Paramount Picture, this company sells the Convertibles preferred stocks at $113, and Common stock was selling at 15 7/8 dollar.

So in past, there was a share price shown in a fraction and people can buy this fraction amount of share.

So this companies preferred stock was can be converted into 7 common shares and they had accumulated dividends of $1 per share.

Common stocks holder could have exchanged their shares for 1/7th as many preferred stocks, and they gain in both dividends and principal value also.

then the author says, ” so many people think book value was intrinsic value, so they were very wrong on this point. (benjamin graham security analysis)

Because not a companies earning value or not companies stocks. the market price is not related in any way.

So after this, the new thinking born. ” those are intrinsic value is determined by earning power.

so from this also intrinsic value have a definite figure. so this is also no a reliable way to find intrinsic value.

Because, the intrinsic value is not anyone known or not anyone finds, but we can take the range( between two points) of whatever the intrinsic price range, this is the highest maximum work for finding intrinsic value.

7) J. I company, this case, in 1933, selling at %80 and Asset value per share $176 and not paying any dividend.

And the average earnings for the past 10 years were equaled to $9.5 per share so this is in 1933, happening and the author talks about this timeline of 1933.

But the result of the previous year in 1932, the loss of $17 per share. so those we take the average earning of previous 10 past years is $9.5 found.

In these 10 years, the recently previous 3 years having losses continuously and those last 3 years of 10 years, also have loses but only good profit at in a middle year.

So the author says, tell me these stocks buy or not.

Answer: So in this author give the explanation is those we figure out the $9.5 average per share, is not reliable, this is because Earning is maximumly fluctuated so this average not represent company condition.

Instead, that 10 years was positive returns continuously, but this not happen. this company’s first 3 past years is negative and last three years of 10 years in past also the negative returns, and in middle, they give the positive returns. so from this, we can not conclude that what will happen in the future would positive or negative. (benjamin graham security analysis)

So from this, we can not find anything so this makes us confuse and doubtful about the future.

If companies price is $10 per share, then this company is showing a buy indication.

But we were not sure to buy at $30 because this earning is not gives a reliable estimate.

Benjamin Graham says, ” we don’t have to find out the exact value of intrinsic value.”

We just have to find out the intrinsic value is adequate. Because this just justify to buy and they are considered high or not on the market price of stocks.

So the author says, ‘ this is very simple.’

because, we can easily say, which women are eligible for the vote or not only just seeing that women. so whatever the age of that women, we don’t need to know that women’s exact age.

or for Man

We can easily say, which man has overweight than his actual weight, so we don’t need to find out the exact weight of that man.

we don’t need to find out the BMI

So just like that, we can find out the intrinsic value is more than the market price or minimum than market price.

after this author says, ” there are three obstacles to face analyst”

Three Obstacles to Success of Analyst:

1) Inadequacy or Incorrectness of data:

This means, the information has the analyst they are not accurate, they are wrong, then the analysis also goes wrong.

So authors say, ” Very few companies are that give the wrong data or mistake data, they can miss a change or hide so one data but or not give mistake data. so those are very few companies. (benjamin graham security analysis)

Because nowadays, the rules, and regulation is more and analyst can also find by simply applying their skill.

2) Uncertainties of Future:

so the author says, ” Future is uncertain and unpredictable in this there is no doubt?”

But, some companies are like that we can predict past and future also, like some stable companies business in normal condition. but in depression or recession time this companies we can’t predict.

So then all future prediction is meaningless.

3) Irrational behavior of Market:

In this we have problem is the company is staying undervalued for a long time and we buy that stocks at undervalued and these stocks never come at a fair price.

So we trapped in there, so this can happen, or most time happen in past. (benjamin graham security analysis)

Or like this may be happening is the stock is overvalued and never come in their fairvalue.

In Value Investing We take the two assumptions

The market price of stocks is misaligned with the actual price.
So Market have inheritance Tendencies to do the right things. ( those desperate in market price and actual value stocks between them)

So this corrects by the market and it has an inheritance quality of the market.

So this may happen tomorrow, next month, or next year, but happen definately correct.

So these two assumption we take, the author then says, ” The relation is between intrinsic value and market stock price is

A market is a Voting machine in the Short term and a Weighting machine in the Long run.

So those who do speculation and those who do analysis in speculation are also the stupidity things.

Because in speculation, the most important factor is luck or chance, and that why the analysis value is minimum this also the same in r00lay games there are odds is opposite to you.

So we have to treat analysis as Auxillary and additional things, not a guide while doing speculation in time.

This is all about Chapter 1 of Benjamin Graham’s security analysis book. The scope and limitation of security analysis and the basic concept of intrinsic value.

Security Analysis Book Introduction

June 8, 2021 by Laxman Sonale 1 Comment

Hello friends, in today’s article we see the introduction of the Security analysis book written by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. This book also called as Bible of Value Investing. If you want to do an analysis of stocks individually then read this book. According to warren buffet, this is the best ever written on value investing, this line is written by Warren Buffett on the book cover. If you want to buy this book then click on the below image.

Security Analysis Book Introduction:

The author gives advice about this book while you are reading this book

About this book(security analysis):-

This book is intended for those who have a serious interest in Security Analysis.
Not Addressed to complete Novice you should know about basic financial terms to understand this book.
So that those are nothing know about financial terms, then this is a book not for you.
In this book, we learn, how to analyze stock individually and general principles and standards to select companies.

In the introduction, part author talks about three timelines i.e. 1911-1913, 1923-25, and 1936-38.

Authors say about 1911-1913, this time is normal but market time also changes and shows volatility.

In 1911-13, this timeline the market very less fluctuates.

In 1923-25, this timeline the market is less fluctuated.

In 1936-38, in this timeline, the market is more fluctuation

So in this book whatever we talk about is in the past in 1940, so imagine yourself in 1940.

so let’s start,

The author says, ” Whenever the time is changing, with that market also changing and bring the new problem to the investors.”

This all discussion we see in the introduction part, let’s start with step-by-step which type of problem actually we face in different securities. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

High-Grade bonds and preferred stocks
Speculative bonds and preferred stocks
Common Stocks

so let’s start with first

1) high-Grade bonds and Preferred stocks:

The author says, ” in past people is buying the securities blindly and keep them in a safe place and forget about that securities and after some(year) time they see that securities are doing well, and this strategy is working good.”

But in today’s ( means 1940) Investors have to face three major problems.

A) Safety of principal and interest

B) Future of Interest rates and bond price

C) Value of a dollar

let’s start with the first problem

A) Safety of principal and Interest:

in these we see, in past old idea is to buy securities and say this is the permanent investment and nothing happen this security we buy and keep this safe and then also strategy is working, but these things do not happen yet now.

Now time, nothing is a permanent investment, no one a single thing in which you can put money and forget about that things. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

Principal and interest safety, if you apply very strict standard to buy this security. so this mistake does not happen. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

B) Future of interest rates and Bond prices:

In the past, bond yield is very high, but before 1940, the yield of bonds is going low.

So the author is now in two situations, is that yield is permanent or temporary.

If yield is temporary, then the yield is going to increase so 20-25 bond prices are falling, then we have to be ready for this.

If yield is permanent then this investment is in high-grade bonds and preferred stocks, then this investment is not good enough, Because you get very low on that investment.

The authors say, to be safe from this then you can buy medium-term bonds, those that have 15 years maturity, so those not more longer or not shorter in the year. so the investment is also going in cash as compared to longer periods bonds. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

let’s see the third problem,

C) Value of a Dollar:

If the value of a dollar is down then people buy the common stocks.

this is because, for example, if you buy bonds for five years and you get the time to time got payment.

Let’s suppose you get $20 each after 6 months for long five years

so you get 10 time $2o if the value of the dollar is minimum (means that earning power is going less)

So you earn $20 earnings from bonds, but you can not buy some value of things, before $20 then after $20 means

In the future, you get $20 dollars then work less than past $20 and buy the minimum things as compare to the past $20.

So this is because of dollar price is going down, so this investment is not benefited because your payment is fixed.

When the dollar price goes down, your earning power has to increase to buy some amount of the same things in past and future also.

For this, there is only one solution, which is that put your surplus money in both, bonds as well as stocks.

2) Speculative Bonds and Preferred stocks

In this, we see some problems, lets stats

A) Risk of principal loss, not offset by a higher yield done:

This author says, Losing of principal is not offset by a higher yield, because this type of bond is very risky.

In this bond, we can lose our principal so, that’s why they give maximum yield than before we discussed ( High-grade bonds)

Because High-grade bonds have minimum yield and this has a maximum yield.

So in this bond, only a high yield is not benefited because we required the chance to profit our principal means then we have the advantage of invest in this bond. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

B) Approach them as common stocks with limited claims:

Think like this, this is not senior security of inferior type.

3) Common Stocks:

The author defines firstly, which are the good stocks? the good stocks who called those are leading company in their industry and those have good records and in future also have good prospects, and thinking is doing good in future also as like in past. and they are in a leading company.

The author gives for this an example of General Electrics

Other good stocks of those company which is rightly financed and there is future prospects very attractive means past record is not good but future is bright and does a better performance in future. e.g. Abert Laboratories

the author says, ” people are neglecting the quantitative standards nowadays and mostly depends on future and future and says future earning is going high.

if suddenly earning increases then people don’t take average earning, they take high earning points and forget about the past earning and they find out the P/E ratio. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

suppose companies earning is same as first not big much change, then you can take previous year earnings, and take the P/E ratio.

But earning first is very less and suddenly increases, then and you take the same previous ratio this is not the right way.

And some people buy stocks on the only basis of P/E and they think the P/E ratio is standard.

So the authors say, ” P/E ratio is not any standard.”

The P/E ratio is not controlled by your investment. your investment and other people’s investment control the P/E RATIO.

The authors say, ” those are investment trust, they make the speculation in strong company, and by the strong and leading company shares.

You can see nowadays also many famous mutual funds, everyone is doing same and everyone has the same leading company shares.

you can go to any industry that company is leading company, then this investment trust has that company shares.

So those people don’t do any analysis and some people almost forget about analysis they only do speculation in a good and leading company.

the author then gives examples of General Electrics. In 1937 the General Electrics value is about 1.87 billion dollars and after one year in 1938, this company value going to is about 0.78 billion dollar

Means in one year this company lose their value almost 50 %.

So the author says, what happened in 12 months this big company value go down up to 50% destroyed.

The author says, ” This is only happening because in 1937 people are optimistic about the company and those people also pessimistic in 1938 on the company. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

So the company is doing the same as the previous year and now also doing the same, so the company doesn’t to any better in the year and not any do badly in this year to say the reason for that in the year 1938.

Then the author says, “people speak like in 1937, whatever the price of that company is really the price and in 1938 whatever the price of the company is as real like in 1937 of our investment. So this value is going down and people say this is the reality of this company.

If you speak like this, its means, you understand the language or you are stupid.

you don’t have the common sense

In common stocks, there will be four major problems, let’s see one by one

A) General future of Corporate Profits:

the author says, ” No one predicts the future, and people say, ‘ railway stocks are safe and sometime after automobiles company come and compete with daily company and perform well than daily stocks.

so nothing is sure about the future.

So about this, The author says, ” You can pay for only past and current earning and don’t pay for the future earning, try to get future earning in free.”

B) Quality differential between companies:

In this problem, Those are good stocks ( leading company stocks) these stocks trade very high multiple in the marketplace, then the secondary companies stocks. (that company is smaller than the leading company)

People think that companies are big, they are going bigger and those companies are small they go vanish or disappear in the coming future.

the author says, ” this company has two problems, the first problem is that their size is big so growth is not increased by the company and another second problem is this return on invested capital they get a minimum return.

Those companies are big, so there are so many companies that try to compete, and get the advantage from that come of leading company if any competitor doesn’t do anything to collapse them then the government does with that leading company. ( understand with examples of Apple and Microsoft, Microsoft company know that government is a mess with us when apple company goes bankrupt, that why Bill gates, buy the non-voting shares of the company and save the apple company while dealing with the Steve jobs. This is the most time happen with the company, so those are leading company that has to be competitive or government will mesh with them.)

C) Interest Rates:

We firstly talk about the bond yield, in the above point in the past there is a high yield, but now the day yield is low.

If this is permanent then the stocks yield average go also minimum. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

Because, people also invest in stocks, instead of a bond, and then crowd increase and common stocks yield also come.

D) Factor of Timing:

The author says, according to him, time the market with successfully is the impossible thing.

Until that right time has come, and when we get the attractive price, the author says, this Is a good time to market.

If this is not happening, then there is no right time to buying the stocks.

The author says, ” timing principles is when the market shows the uptrend means, from now market goes high and they decide now the uptrend, like people to do technical analysis.”

this philosophy of timing is opposite to the investment nature.

This philosophy says, that, ” investor has to be patient until the market is encouraging himself too says, now I am going high and you now do investment in me.

The author says in the conclusion part of the Introduction of security analysis.

Investors should wait for periods of depressed business and market levels to buy representative common stocks. otherwise, he will have to acquire them at prices that the future may cause him to regret.

and Secondary companies offer great opportunities except in the overall bull market. then the leading company in the industry.