common stocks and uncommon profits 15 points Archives

When to sell stocks

By Laxman Sonale May 8, 2021

Hello friends, in today’s article we see when to sell stocks from chapter 6 of the common stocks and uncommon profits book. This chapter helps you to understand the selling of outstanding company stocks. The most important question is: when to sell stocks? so let’s see their merit and demerit of selling stocks.

When to sell stocks:

The author says ” if you are selling stocks, then we have an infinite reason for that for example, selling stocks for child education, starting own business and buying own house.”

This above all reason is out of this book. The author is only focusing on those reasons that have only one purpose making maximum profits by selling stocks.

If you are buying stocks on the basis of the previous chapter. Then you have only three reasons for selling stocks.

1 ) The mistake has been made in the Original purchase time:

You have made the mistake while buying stocks that are known from the facts of the company. Now this time the prospect of the company is not good as before buying time. So in this situation, you have to control your emotion.
You have to remember this, ” big investors also do big mistakes”, so sell stocks as quickly as.
don’t hold that stocks for the long term, while listening to your ego. In this situation say no to that stocks and don’t run from accepting mistakes. so most of the investors lose their money while listening to their ego and holding that stocks. (When to sell stocks)
In this situation, you have two types of losing
1) the more you hold, the more you lose: Instead of that sell these stocks and buying the better stocks then these stocks hold for the long term so this stock’s profit is more than the previous stocks we hold for the long term.
2) Profits have also gone: If you hold those stocks then you lose the profit of better stocks also.
If you really want a 100% gain on the investment of your lifetime saving, over a period of the year, then don’t think of a 10% loss or 5% gain. don’t lose energy while thinking of that loss and gain.
Review your mistake carefully, learn from that mistake, and go forward.
In my opinion, Those investors buy the stocks, while analyzing them properly, and after some time those stocks go bad. They going bad they have the fact of that happening and show the reason for that happening.
But investors never believe in that fact, because they are very much attached to that stock like attached to a girlfriend. (When to sell stocks)
So Those are a trader, these people are not attached to stocks whatever stocks. they only put the Stop Loss option. If they had made a mistake, then they don’t lose lots of money because of the stop loss option and they play other trades. I am not saying to become a trader and put the stock loose. I am saying that taking the quality from traders is detachment from stocks. and learn this skill of detachment.

2) If the company no longer qualifies in regards to the 15 points.

This situation has two reasons for this cause of selling stocks

A) Determination of Management:

Management of the company is long after time getting success. And they are sufficient with that success and after that, they don’t work like before they do to got success.
The new management of the company does not believe in the old management policy. The Old management policy helped to get the success of the company. (When to sell stocks)
In this situation, you have to sell stocks as quickly as, whatever the general market outlook. If the market is bullish or bearish what is the capital gain TAX?

B) Company no longer has the prospects of new market and new products:

If the above point is taken, then that is why the growth potential of the company decreases,s and then the stock price is also decreased.
So in this situation, you can sell these stocks slowly, but you have to consider, the time of selling stocks comes.
Stocks can be sold at more leisure than management deterioration, but the time to sell has come.

3) Switching to more attractive company stocks:

If an investor is very much sure about other stocks are better than these stocks in growth prospects.
then after that, you can switch whatever capital gain tax is applicable while selling these stocks. you can handsomely switch to better stocks.
So this that not mean switching each and every day and becoming a trader.

Above these three reasons from the author, the author gives another reason for selling stocks according to the financial institute, consider to sell stocks and their thought and the authors thought on their thinking.

so let’s see financial community’s reason for selling stocks is good or bad

Reasons the financial community gives for selling stocks:

1) General Market decline is on the horizon:

The general market forecast is only a guess, you have to find out the real problem in the company and get the knowledge that does not depend on a guess. (When to sell stocks)
If you sell stocks and the bear market does not come, then you got a loss and when investors buy stocks and capital gain tax is also applied. this looks like pure stupidity.

2) Outstanding stock has become overpriced:

Overpriced means the P/E ratio of the company is more than the investor thinks this range is a good P/E ratio. This P/E ratio is more multiple than the P/E ratio, which we are considering is good. This can get while considering with other company.
No one tells you the good price of the P/E ratio.
In any common think good stocks of the company will sell and should sell at a higher P/E multiple.
The author says, ” if you understand the stocks is go high as compared to its a fundamental value and 35% can fall down but have a good prospect of the company. then You have to maintain the position in that stock and not sell at all. (When to sell stocks)

3) Most ridiculous of all is that Stocks has had a huge advance:

This stock’s potential is gone and buying the new stocks and saying these stocks do not go high.
The author explains with examples, ” Suppose you have the last day of your college life. Everyone asks you to give them 10X of their first-year earnings.
instead of that, they give you 25% of his every year earnings for the rest of his life. so you don’t have that much money to give each and every classmate in your class.
You can give only three classmates. In this situation you can’t see who your friends are, you directly see which student in the class is clever and those got big earnings in the coming future year.
You choose three people, and after 10 years, one of your classmates, get outstanding success. He gets promotion on promotion and gets the top executive post in his company.
So the author says, tell me in this situation, you can sell me a contract of those friends that got great success,
because only one reason is that they get the 600% return on your investment and buy those classmate contract that has the same earnings before 10 years and after also.
You think like this, a classmate does not develop and has the ability to develop. this is like the above third reason for the financial community. (When to sell stocks)
Now you say, a college classmate and company stocks are both different things.
the author says, yes one big difference is, our outstanding classmate gets possible death early is not but, he will die one day, definitely.
After his death, we don’t get 25% of his earnings.
But a company doesn’t have a lifespan whatever death of the founder has happened, the company is still running, generation after generation.
Those quality and management policy is the same and they are hiring new quality management.
For this the author says, this whole chapter in one is

“If the job has been correctly done when stock is purchased, the time to sell it – Almost Never..”

This is all about when to sell stocks from chapter 6 of common stocks and uncommon profits book

15 points of outstanding company

By Laxman Sonale April 2, 2021

Hello friends, In today’s article we see 15 points of the outstanding company from chapter 3 of the common stocks and uncommon profits book. In 15 points of an outstanding company, you have to apply for each and every company to show the outstanding company. Philip A. Fisher gives these 15th points from his investment strategy they use for 10 years, with getting a good return.

previous chapter 2:

Chapter 3: What to buy: The 15 points of an outstanding company

In this chapter, we have to talk to customers, suppliers, management, and competitor about the company, by asking about these 15 points of outstanding company.

These 15 points define whether the company is outstanding or not. so let’s start with the first points

Does the company have products and services with the sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

The author says, ” if sales are constant or decline, then also you make the one-time profits from that company.”

A company can minimize costs and improve profits so that is why the cost price also increases, so in this company, investors can’t make the big money. (15 points of the outstanding company)

In other situations, profit can be big while the change in the industry, for example, If one company makes the first radio as a product, but now they are making Television and sales are increasing and that’s why profits also increase, but it has limited up to the time when everyone has the T.V., then profits is stopping and growth of sales also stops. so this is a type of situation that is also a one-time profit, but better than the first situation.

The author says, ” Sales do not grow like a uniform, they grow like irregular form, so don’t see the sales of annual reports or one year, see them for several years. (15 points of the outstanding company)

We need that type of company, they have the following two characteristics

1) Fortunate and able: (example: An aluminum company in America)

2) Fortunate because they are able: (example: Du Pont )

@ Aluminium Company of America is fortunate and able, because companies founder do the commercial and show the use of aluminum in daily routine, and they got a bigger market for their product, whatever they expect, this market is bigger than their thought. And they also take the advantage of fortunate scenarios.
Company stocks of the aluminum company of America his stocks increase 6 times their continuous previous year of medium return, which goes up to 40% down, and they become the 6 times. (15 points of the outstanding company)

@ Du Pont: This company makes the blasting powder for lots of the year, but in peach time, their sales come down, and close to the mining industry level. So in making blasting powder company develops the skill and this skill is very useful for making new products, and they launch one after one, and each product sells quickly and they make themselves a fortune.

So both types of companies have one thing that is important is that the management ability is the highest order, so without them, this sale not stay for a long period of time.

If any amateur investor invests in a chemical industry company and they see the talk like, ” in the industry those company is more attractive that have, their develop good growth product.” So they say’s the wrong way

Because of that the company is developing attractive growth products, that why they become an outstanding company. (15 points of the outstanding company)

if any company management is outstanding, the industry is in a change of technology, and the company has more focus on research, so the investor has to be alert about how management take the advantage of that opportunity to increase their sales and profits.

The Author say’s, ” His friends, make a survey in 1947, of the television industry and they found the competition is going to be very competitive and in between that there is the shortage of glass bulbs for picture tubes in T.V.

So Corning Glass Works company has the technology and research ability to supply the glass bulb to the T.V. Industry, so opportunity becomes the new revenue source for the company. (15 points of the outstanding company)

So author’s friends, recommend stocks, and these stocks in increase 12 to 13 times in just 10 years.

so let’s 2nd points

2. Does the management have the determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potential when the growth potential of currently attractive product lines has largely been exploited?

you see the first and second points have a difference that the 1st point says, companies have to be existing product market is large so for that in upcoming year sales is increasing.

So 2nd point says, ” what is the company realize or not when the market potential of the product ends.”

if they want to grow continuously, so they want to work on new products and new markets.

So those company has come true on the first point and 2nd point also, then we need this type of company. (15 points of the outstanding company)

if the company doesn’t have there plan and policy for developing a new product, this company gives you only on-time profits, up to that time the existing product has market potential.

Scientific research and development is the first focus of the company because they develop an old product that is good and develop new products also.

Those company tries to develop new products from the existing product line, this company is doing better than those company that develops unrelated product. If the unrelated product is successful so company occurred in a different new industry, so that has no link with its existing industry. (15 points of the outstanding company)

let’s start with 3rd point

3)How effective are the company’s R & D efforts in relation to its sizes?

If you divide R & D expenses into the annual sales, so you get how much a company spends a dollar sale of percentage on R & D, which means how much percentage they give to the R & D expense of total money.

You can compare this figure with the other company. but it’s misleading if one of the companies is doing an existing product to take the order and customize it and they show research expense, but not many people believe that this is R & D expense. (15 points of the outstanding company)

Other companies do for new product palate plant cost as production expenses or not show R & D expenses. So both situation figure is not comparable.

A research scientist is well-skilled, and the company has that expertise, in that other expert scientists work together in a team.

Research experts and product sales are both familiar with the problem or not. we have to find out this. if they are familiar then profits increase.

The research and production department has to be in close relation, then good and quality products will be developed.

So the Top management crash program increases the research cost. crash program those, in that research people work for those workers that is more important, in this time.

Most of the time crash program is not worth all these disruptions they cause.

So in a big company, they have a maximum problem, that is why the small company is not afraid of the big company for competition.

So many times government pressurize to do research, and companies also do research on defense research.

Defense research-related product information is how much benefits the investor. let’s see three situations.

The new weapon doesn’t have commercial use, but only work for military purpose and weapons write have government, in they can make a weapon from any other company by giving weapon writes and they develop the competition between the company and get from the cheaper company, that develop this product, so other company builds the product. so in this situation, investors have zero value for this crash program.
second, some weapon is developed through a very critically complex process, but manufacturers have learned it and develop also more difficult than this, time other companies try to develop a weapon, they face a problem, so the government has to come to those company that develops first, so there is not a competition between the company, so in this situation, they have some value to the investor. (15 points of the outstanding company)
As a like weapon, while the research team developing a weapon, they learn the new technique and principles that use in a commercial product of the company and improve it, and that is why the profits margin is increasing, then this type of crash program is most helpful to the company and in this situation investor has the great value.

so from government money, companies’ research teams learn the new principle and techniques, that apply to commercialize their business models, this is the reason for Texas Instruments and Ampex company success.

Market research is the important part, you have to see what the company is doing or not. If doing, so how big is the market, and what actually the customer need? Without doing market research, if a company develops the best product, that has zero value, they will be going zero or even cost also not make.

And also check company is spending money on research how long, you have to see for 10 years. To make a new product to develop for the sales and profit rate increases. (15 points of the outstanding company)

let’s see the 4th point of outstanding company.

4) Does the company have an above-average sales organization?

Making repeat sales from the old customer is the first benchmark of the success of the company.

Most of the Investor’s focus is minimum on the sales efficiency, advertising, and distribution organization of the company. and maximum focus on product research finance etc.

Competitors and customers tell you the sales and marketing organization of the company.

Outstanding sales, product, and research three are extremely important for the company’s success.

For example, Dow Chemical Company: This company is very famous for outstanding research but people don’t know about their salesperson. The company is taking care of scientists as well as salespeople and give both special training and give some attention to salesman like research scientist. (15 points of the outstanding company)

Another example, IBM company: In this company salesman is spending 1/3 time of his job is on training. If any company’s sales organization is not strong but they have good at research and product, this like company gives you only time profits.

let’s see the 5th point of an outstanding company

5) Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?

From an investor’s point of view is that if sales value is when only if profit growth increases so without profit, sales growth is useless.

Industry profit margins and companies’ profit margins compare each other and we have to invest in those companies that have a maximum profit margin.

Marginal companies, those companies that have minimum margin, we don’t have to invest in that, you can only invest when companies business is changing fundamentally, and that causes profit increases and this profit is compulsory, so this company is leaving the marginal company category. (15 points of the outstanding company)

If big companies’ profit margin is minimum so maybe happen if this is temporary. so maybe happen their profit they use for research and sales promotion for some time. So this situation is more attractive.

If all industry is doing well, so all companies’ margin is maximum and in marginal companies, the profit margin is more percentage increase, and that is why profit growth is maximum compared to those companies that profit margin is maximum.

So after some time or in bad time come the marginal companies’ profit margin falls down very fast.

let’s see 6th points of outstanding companies

6) What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margin?

The Company’s success does not depend on how much margin at buying time they depend on, or what profit margin in the future. (15 points of the outstanding company)

Wages and salary costs increase year by year also cost increases as Raw material and supply costs. Some companies increase product prices to maintain the cost of wages and raw materials. Because they have the demand of that product or competitor increases product price more than that price, but it is the temporary company seeing the demand company increases the production capacity and demand is not like that then margin in minimum.

Some companies smartly minimize costs, like accounting and book handling, and transportation costs.

From this smartly we can minimize cost or cost-cutting, so this is not happening in one right way. So the investor has to focus on what the company does for cost-cutting and margin improvement, and this confirms by talking to the top executives.

So those companies doing good at cost-cutting they will do in the future also.

6) Does the company have outstanding labor and personal relations?

If regular strikes happen in the company and carry on for a long time, then this affects on badly on production department.

If those companies have a Labor turnover maximum, then avoid this company because training new employees that increase the cost.

Those companies have no labor union, they usually have good relationships if the union is present but have mutual respect with management. If strikes do not happen in a company, it does not mean relation is good.

Companies’ labor turnover is relative to the company of some industry or in some area, so their relationship is how much good is important.

If the company is doing mass hiring and mass firing, so this is not a good sign from the company or investor’s point of view also. (15 points of the outstanding company)

Those companies are good companies, they settle grievances quickly and make above-average profits and above-average salaries paid to the employees, and applicants have a maximum list in that company to take the job.

If companies profit is coming by paying below-average salaries, means a serious problem is coming soon in the company.

8) Does the company have outstanding executive relations?

executives give the right direction to the company and they have a big responsibility and they have maximum stress level.

top-level executives’ stay in the company is mandatory and stay gives the maximum to the company, so these types of relationships are present in the company.

The company has a like culture, in that promotion is given on an abilities basis, not favoritism or not on nepotism. (15 points of the outstanding company)

The salary industry is that much from outsider selection when inside people are not capable of the post. An investor can learn about it easily by chatting with a few executives scattered at different levels of responsibility

9) Does the company have a depth to its management?

This means the company can delight in responsibility and authority. That means not like a one-man army

A small company can do better in one-man leadership, but sometimes one turn comes like the size of a company is not small and one-man leadership can’t handle all company.

So we learn from the 8th point that is necessary to know about to develop the management dept. means have to believe in the junior also. (15 points of the outstanding company)

The senior executives have to give some adequate authority to the junior for completing work if they don’t do that, if they are absent then the company faces two many problems.

Management has to listen to employee suggestions by giving up his ego, so whatever it be that may be criticism of current management policy.

Read more: one up on wall street book summary

10) How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting controls?

If a company can not break down its overall cost with sufficient accuracy and detail, to show the cost of each small step in its operation then it won’t have outstanding success for a long period of time.

If management doesn’t figure out the how much cost of the product, they can’t decide on the right pricing. if you ask the management, they will give you detail of the balance sheet, but not have important detail, but have detail inaccuracy. (15 points of the outstanding company)

But investors don’t verify numbers on their own.

If company management understands the cost analysis and control and others they have above average, then in this field they also are above average.

11) Are there other aspects of the business somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?

In short, the company has some competitive advantage. for example in a retail business, need real estate expertise important. if any company can take better leasing property than the other competition means, they have this competitive advantage.

So in this company insurance costs is an important factor, if any company has insurance costs less than 35% of other competitors so this is the competitive advantage of the company.

If any company has some process of patent and product means they have this competitive advantage, but if the company is dependent on the patent for maintaining a profit margin, so this is a weakness because patents have an expiry date and they will expire. (15 points of the outstanding company)

A durable competitive advantage needs to beat the competitor. Manufacturing knows about the sales and service organization and customer goodwill is more important.

So patents are important for small and young companies, if not then big company copy their product and sell them on the big distribution network.

Leadership in engineering is the fundamental source of protection instead of the patent.

12) Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regard to profits?

Some companies do business-like, they need profits today and some companies do not focus on today’s profits instead of that they focus on goodwill, because in long term, over the year, have maximum profits.

The company has treated customers and suppliers, in a form that we know, for example, if suppliers take an unexpected expense to deliver the product, and the company pays the supplier maximum than the contract so this company thinking in the long term. (15 points of the outstanding company)

If a company works to satisfy the customer to take special effects challenge, so they fix and compulsory customer, and they sacrifice short-term profit and think in long-term get overall maximum profits.

Investors have to buy a long-term range outlook.

13) In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing so that a large number of shares then outstanding will largely cancel the existing shareholder’s benefits from this anticipated growth?

means, In a company when growth happens in the future, that company has to issue equity, and because of this, those growth benefits have to the existing shareholder not getting in.

The author says typical investment books most of the space given to this discussion is what is the capital structure.

So these things did not deserve these points. In the author’s opinion, the intelligent investor does not buy only stocks(15 points of the outstanding company) because they are cheap. ( opposite to the benjamin graham philosophy)

The Author says, very less company is only that come true on the 14th point and that companies we need this company easily get debt and easy to raise equity.

If investors think, companies’ growth visualize in the future, and companies’ cash and debt up to a limit of prudence have happened then is good.

After that company issues the equity for further growth, At that time the profit increases and the stock price also, but not sufficient cash and borrowing for growth, as we visualize, so this dilutes the earnings of the current share and we have to find out how much is dilution or after dilution is also attractive.

If the company is true on the 14th point but not good on this point then the investor can be bought, providing companies management if not poor. (15 points of the outstanding company)

If another company is good for financial in cash position but not good on other 14th points then do not buy, just because they are easy.

14) Does the management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but calm up when troubles and disappointment occur?

Even the best-run companies face unexpected difficulties, become it is the nature of business(lose money on research and profits pause)

But management has to be read by with plan, and how they escape from this situation. if they stop talking means, they don’t have a plan, to escape from the situation

So this investor has to stay away from those who hide the bad news from the investor.

last points, let’ see

15) Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

Companies management is very close to the companies asset, and this asset can have been a different method to use badly.

For personal use companies’ assets can be used and give the contract of the supplier to the relatives.

Give relatives maximum salary, for them, they can issues stocks option. (15 points of the outstanding company)

So stay away from this is only one way is, our investment gives only good management, that limit.

If a company is good on 14th points but not good on this, then don’t put money on this company.

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: chapter 1

By Laxman Sonale March 29, 2021

Hello friends, in today’s article we see chapter 1, clues from the past of common stock and uncommon profits book. In this book, Philip A. Fisher explains how we can learn from history, and how people are makes money in history, in chapter 1, clues from the past of common stocks and uncommon profits book.

Previous introduction part

Common stocks and uncommon profits Chapter 1: Clues from the past

Philip A. Fisher says by seeing the past of the stock market, they get

People come stock market for only one reason is that they want to make money in the market. So in past, they use two methods to make money in the market.

By predicting the business cycle, and betting on that prediction, they buy the stock at the bad time and sell the stock at the good time. So they collect the information from their connection and know when the bad time comes and when to buy that bad stocks. Those people have more connections that prediction is going more accurately and they make the money.
Finding outstanding companies and holding them in the good and bad times of the business economy. So this method helps to get a low risk and maximum profits. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

So comparing both methods, you get a good result for the second way than the first one.

And this second method is more profitable for more people, But you have to identify the outstanding company.

So outstanding companies’ opportunities are also available in past and they are also available in present, and they are maximum in number as compared to the present. Because in past there is only a family business present, and they were only run by a family member, whatever the person is they deserve it or not the company, they run the company.

But in no time, if any family business they are not capable to run the business, they hire the most eligible management. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

Another thing is that now businesses are spending more money on research or R&D department. This start form Hitler’s time, in Hitler’s army, there are so many researchers going on weapons, so that’s why they become very famous, so every country knew about the power of R&D. So there from each and every country start developing research and spend money on R& D. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

So people make the R&D of commercial products also. Now the company’s revenue of about 20% has come from those products that are actually not even present or developed.

So doing research is good, if you don’t do the R&D, is more expensive than doing R&D.

Bond:

A bond is a very bad investment in the long term because the simple one is infection.

This inflation is more than the bond interest. Your money is going negative when you choose the bond as a long-term investment.

So the bond is only profitable when you have to know how to time the interest rate of inflation in short term.

So get the coupons on the bonds they are very less in value as you give them and buy bonds.

The author says in past we have to learn five things, (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

those people make the maximum return by identifying the outstanding company, those companies whose sales and profits grow fast than the there industry.
When you have found such a company and hold it for a long period of time, get the maximum results.
this is not necessary for this type of company is small-cap, but company management is intelligent enough to handle the problem of the company, identify the new opportunity for the company to grow, and make the company profitable.
Growth comes from research that, that product is developed from the existing product. ( Growth is associated with knowing how to manage research to bring to market economically worthwhile and usually interrelated product lines.
Opportunities that were present before 25-50 years are now present also and more.

So this knows us from the historical stock market, and money-making strategy.

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