Security Analysis: Chapter 15

Hello friends, in today’s article, we see a summary of chapter 15 of the Security Analysis book by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. Chapter 15 is about the Technique of Selecting Preferred Stocks for Investment. so let’s see

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The technique of Selecting Preferred Stocks for Investment:-Security Analysis: Chapter 15

In this chapter, the author explains, if we decide to buy the preferred stocks while seeing their disadvantages, so author gives some techniques to select preferred stocks.

The Author Says, ” For preferred stocks, we required to stringent the minimum requirement as compared to bond. So what is the minimum requirement for interest coverage ratio, this given in the following table (image)

Security Analysis Chapter 15

Now you can see, in three industry Segments

So for preferred stocks required more high multiple like in public utility is 1.75 of Fixed charges and for preferred stocks earning is 2 times of Fixed charges and Preferred stocks dividend.

Now Come for minimum stock Value requirement, in this also as compare bond and preferred stocks.

In this, you can see for preferred stocks required more. (Security Analysis: Chapter 15)

In public utilities, required 50% more than bond means 1/2 and for preferred stocks, 66.67% means 2/3 ( Bond + Preferred stocks equal)

So in this chapter 15, we discuss both tables and how to calculate this value.

 

How to calculate Rations?

The first thing is to use the method name is ” Total Deductions method“, for interest coverage ratio to compare with minimum coverage ratio.

So in this method, we have to divide earning by Bond interest + Preferred dividend.

In Bond, we only divide by bond interest but in this, we use both ( bond interest + Preferred dividend)

so some of you say, why not we use the prior deduction method,

Because, we know that, by using the prior deduction method

the result looks like Preferred stocks are more secure than Bond. so that’s why the author uses the total deduction method.

Let’s come in Stock Value Ratios

Security Analysis Chapter 15

For Bond, we use in the numerator, stocks equity( common stocks) and divided by funded debt( bonded debt).

For the preferred Stocks case, in the Numerator, We take only common stocks and in the denominator, we take bonded debt + Preferred stocks.

If Suppose You want the stock value ratio, for this preferred stocks are two type

1st Seniority preferred stocks

2nd Seniority preferred stocks

so for this type of preferred stock using the following method

  • If we want to calculate for 1st seniority preferred stocks Value ratio. so In 1st seniority of preferred stocks in the Nenomenator of equation presents 2nd seniority preferred stocks + common stocks and in the denominator, we can use Bonded debt + 1st preferred stocks. (Security Analysis: Chapter 15)

In Bond, we have to take face value, and 1st preferred stocks we have to take market value.

1st preferred stocks face value we can’t take, because, preferred stocks’ actual par value is different than the stated value.

for this, the author gives example to understand the above statement

e.g, The preferred stocks and this stated par value is $1 but those are preferred stocks holders, they have to get $100 for liquidating preferred stocks.

so the actual par value of that stock is $100, not $1. so for this, we have to use Market Value.

We can see tables(for referring above note page image) in that we say, for Preferred stocks the minimum requirement is more as compared to bonds.

So for seeing this formula, we know that, let’s take

The interest coverage ratio, in the numerator same ( EBIT- earning before interest tax) but in the bond case, we divided by fixed charges, and in the case of the preferred stock, we divided by fixed charges + preferred stocks dividend.

so those are preferred stock coverage is found less, because, we required maximum, as the author gives us

Let’s see in Public utility examples, for the preferred stocks the interest coverage ratio is 2 times. (as given in table by author)

Means, Interest coverage ratio = EBIT / Bond interest + preferred dividend.

            Interest Coverage ratio = 2

so, for Bond ( Interest coverage ratio = EBIT / Interest charges )

Now we surprise

so its value is more than 2 times because the denominator is small

If for preferred stocks is 2, so then bond interest coverage ratio is more than 2. obviously by math

So then the author says, ” Yes, the interest coverage ratio for the bond is more than 2, but people thinks, for preferred stocks coverage ratio is have to be lenient or less stringent, (Security Analysis: Chapter 15)

Because, preferred stocks coverage ratios denominator is more, so the value may be small,”

then Author says, This type of thinking is wrong.

Because, in any company have a bond and preferred stocks, and in this company preferred stocks is when safe, then this company bond is safer, with a good margin of safety.

If the bond is less safe then how are preferred stocks safe? ( common sense)

If the coverage ratio is minimum then this is only limited to bond coverage ratio, not for preferred stocks.

that’s why the author takes 2 times the interest coverage ratio for preferred stocks and for bonds only 1.75.

then the author talks about cumulative Issues and Non Cumulative issues

 

Non-cumulative stocks Issues/ cumulative Stock issues:-

Cumulative Stock issues:- Cumulative preferred stocks are those, in them, the dividend is suspended by the director, so this dividend is accumulated and this dividend is paid later.

But in Non-Cumulative Stock Issues:- In this, if the dividend is suspended, then they are not be recovered or accumulated. So those are new continued dividends, that are only given by the company.

That dividend is missed by the director, that dividend is gone forever.

Then the author says, ” Buying cumulative stocks is better than the Non-cumulative stocks.

Because, in non-cumulative stock problem is, those are common stockholder, they taking advantage, because, the director can suspend, your dividend. in those years also when companies earning is good, and this money is used by the director to improve the company. By this activity, the direct benefit to the common stockholder.

And Your dividend is missed by the company is not given in the next dividend time.

so there is not any benefit for non-cumulative stocks means full loss

On this Non-cumulative Preferred stocks lose, taking benefit by a company means on your expense, taking other profits. (Security Analysis: Chapter 15)

So those are company directors they play in trick, is that

Firstly they suspend your dividend and when they give a dividend to common stocks holder before some time that they give the dividend to the non-cumulative stockholder.

When a company wants to suspend its dividend, so for this they stop the first dividend of the common stockholder and some time after they stop the dividend of preferred stockholders also.

after this difference, the author talks about, ” those 21 preferred stocks, that do good in depression also.

Out of 440 listed stocks on NYSE in 1932, that on 21 stocks is doing good and perform well in depression with any loss.

So those are 440 listed stocks on NYSE in them only 40 (9%) are Non-cumulative preferred stocks.

By knowing this, you may be surprised, those are 21 stocks, that do good in depression, so in them,

the author gives 3 observations, they are as follows.

  1. The number of Non-cumulative issues was higher than cumulative issues, in those 21.
  2. No. of preferred stocks proceeded by bonds were higher than without bonds in those 21. ( as we discussed, in those company, that have only preferred stocks, that’s is good for the preferred stockholder.)
  3. The industry best represented is the snuff business, with three companies.”

(snuff business is a type of business of Tobacco)

So, the author says, ” Buy seeing the only result, we can’t say, non-cumulative stocks is superior.

or we can’t have to say, preferred stocks with the bond is better than, only preferred stocks companies.

or we can’t say, Snuff business is the safe business”

Logically the author says, ” This reverse is best means, the cumulative issue is better and preferred stocks without bond is better. (Security Analysis: Chapter 15)

But this result occurs, it only proves that if this thing does not matter most and maybe desirable but you become successful or not on this things, this observation not affect.

Then the author says, In conclusion

What matters most to success.

  1. Outstanding record of the company for a long period in past
  2. The strong inherent stability of the company
  3. Absence of concrete reason to expect substantial change for worse in the future.

so this is all about chapter 15 of the security Analysis book by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd.

What is the dividend?

Hello friends, in today's article we see the what is the dividend? or the hullabaloo about dividends from chapter 7 of common stocks and uncommon profits book. in chapter 7…

When to sell stocks

Hello friends, in today’s article we see when to sell stocks from chapter 6 of the common stocks and uncommon profits book. This chapter helps you to understand the selling of outstanding company stocks. The most important question is: when to sell stocks? so let’s see their merit and demerit of selling stocks.

When to sell stocks:

When to sell stocks

The author says ” if you are selling stocks, then we have an infinite reason for that for example, selling stocks for child education, starting own business and buying own house.”

This above all reason is out of this book. The author is only focusing on those reasons that have only one purpose making maximum profits by selling stocks.

If you are buying stocks on the basis of the previous chapter. Then you have only three reasons for selling stocks.

1 ) The mistake has been made in the Original purchase time: 

  • You have made the mistake while buying stocks that are known from the facts of the company. Now this time the prospect of the company is not good as before buying time. So in this situation, you have to control your emotion.
  • You have to remember this, ” big investors also do big mistakes”, so sell stocks as quickly as.
  • don’t hold that stocks for the long term, while listening to your ego. In this situation say no to that stocks and don’t run from accepting mistakes. so most of the investors lose their money while listening to their ego and holding that stocks. (When to sell stocks)
  • In this situation, you have two types of losing
  • 1) the more you hold, the more you lose: Instead of that sell these stocks and buying the better stocks then these stocks hold for the long term so this stock’s profit is more than the previous stocks we hold for the long term.
  • 2) Profits have also gone: If you hold those stocks then you lose the profit of better stocks also.
  • If you really want a 100% gain on the investment of your lifetime saving, over a period of the year, then don’t think of a 10% loss or 5% gain. don’t lose energy while thinking of that loss and gain.
  • Review your mistake carefully, learn from that mistake, and go forward.
  • In my opinion, Those investors buy the stocks, while analyzing them properly, and after some time those stocks go bad. They going bad they have the fact of that happening and show the reason for that happening.
  • But investors never believe in that fact, because they are very much attached to that stock like attached to a girlfriend. (When to sell stocks)
  • So Those are a trader, these people are not attached to stocks whatever stocks. they only put the Stop Loss option. If they had made a mistake, then they don’t lose lots of money because of the stop loss option and they play other trades. I am not saying to become a trader and put the stock loose. I am saying that taking the quality from traders is detachment from stocks. and learn this skill of detachment.

2) If the company no longer qualifies in regards to the 15 points.

  • This situation has two reasons for this cause of selling stocks

A) Determination of Management:

  • Management of the company is long after time getting success. And they are sufficient with that success and after that, they don’t work like before they do to got success.
  • The new management of the company does not believe in the old management policy. The Old management policy helped to get the success of the company. (When to sell stocks)
  • In this situation, you have to sell stocks as quickly as, whatever the general market outlook. If the market is bullish or bearish what is the capital gain TAX?

B) Company no longer has the prospects of new market and new products:

  • If the above point is taken, then that is why the growth potential of the company decreases,s and then the stock price is also decreased.
  • So in this situation, you can sell these stocks slowly, but you have to consider, the time of selling stocks comes.
  • Stocks can be sold at more leisure than management deterioration, but the time to sell has come.

3) Switching to more attractive company stocks:

  • If an investor is very much sure about other stocks are better than these stocks in growth prospects.
  • then after that, you can switch whatever capital gain tax is applicable while selling these stocks. you can handsomely switch to better stocks.
  •  So this that not mean switching each and every day and becoming a trader.

Above these three reasons from the author, the author gives another reason for selling stocks according to the financial institute, consider to sell stocks and their thought and the authors thought on their thinking.

so let’s see financial community’s reason for selling stocks is good or bad

Reasons the financial community gives for selling stocks:

1) General Market decline is on the horizon:

  • The general market forecast is only a guess, you have to find out the real problem in the company and get the knowledge that does not depend on a guess. (When to sell stocks)
  • If you sell stocks and the bear market does not come, then you got a loss and when investors buy stocks and capital gain tax is also applied. this looks like pure stupidity.

2) Outstanding stock has become overpriced:

  • Overpriced means the P/E ratio of the company is more than the investor thinks this range is a good P/E ratio. This P/E ratio is more multiple than the P/E ratio, which we are considering is good. This can get while considering with other company.
  • No one tells you the good price of the P/E ratio.
  • In any common think good stocks of the company will sell and should sell at a higher P/E multiple.
  • The author says, ” if you understand the stocks is go high as compared to its a fundamental value and 35% can fall down but have a good prospect of the company. then You have to maintain the position in that stock and not sell at all. (When to sell stocks)

3) Most ridiculous of all is that Stocks has had a huge advance:

  • This stock’s potential is gone and buying the new stocks and saying these stocks do not go high.
  • The author explains with examples, ” Suppose you have the last day of your college life. Everyone asks you to give them 10X of their first-year earnings.
  • instead of that, they give you 25% of his every year earnings for the rest of his life. so you don’t have that much money to give each and every classmate in your class.
  • You can give only three classmates. In this situation you can’t see who your friends are, you directly see which student in the class is clever and those got big earnings in the coming future year.
  • You choose three people, and after 10 years, one of your classmates, get outstanding success. He gets promotion on promotion and gets the top executive post in his company.
  • So the author says, tell me in this situation, you can sell me a contract of those friends that got great success,
  • because only one reason is that they get the 600% return on your investment and buy those classmate contract that has the same earnings before 10 years and after also.
  • You think like this, a classmate does not develop and has the ability to develop.  this is like the above third reason for the financial community. (When to sell stocks)
  • Now you say, a college classmate and company stocks are both different things.
  • the author says, yes one big difference is, our outstanding classmate gets possible death early is not but, he will die one day, definitely.
  • After his death, we don’t get 25% of his earnings.
  • But a company doesn’t have a lifespan whatever death of the founder has happened, the company is still running, generation after generation.
  • Those quality and management policy is the same and they are hiring new quality management.
  • For this the author says, this whole chapter in one is

“If the job has been correctly done when stock is purchased, the time to sell it – Almost Never..”

This is all about when to sell stocks from chapter 6 of common stocks and uncommon profits book

 

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Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4

Hello friends, In today’s article we see what to buy: applying this to your own need, from chapter 4 of Common stocks and Uncommon Profits book. Chapter 4 helps you to find which stocks we have to buy and what is the reason for that from the Common stocks and Uncommon Profits book.

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Common Sense & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4

What to buy: Applying this to your own needs:-Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4

After studying the 15th point, we have some, like, This work is done by myself, or finds some expert.

There are three stocks, Large-cap, Small Cap, Mid Cap category stocks. So between that which stocks we have to choose.

Which stocks do we have to buy, those that pay the dividend and without paying the dividend stock? this all depends on your need.

People have misconceptions about successful investors. They are thinking, Investors are bookish person, that only read a balance sheet and analyze the financial statements. (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

If you think like that and work like that, then you get the stock at a bargain price. But after some time these stocks become the value trap.

So, friends, this is the book for making money while taking low risks.

This is only happening by buying growth stocks, and growth stocks are giving each and every decade a 100% return on investment.

So the author only talks about these growth stocks that give 100% return by staying 5 to 10 years. with it.

The authors say, Investor only gives some time to his investment, suppose you have the ability, and time also. (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

But maybe don’t have time to meet the customer and supplier. If you have time to talk but don’t know to talk to the customers and suppliers and do not know which type of question you have to ask.

If you have all the above things, but don’t have to develop an interest in people to talk with you, that tell you all information about the company.

If you have all this ability, then you may not have judgment power to get the meaning thought on that information or if this also has the ability. (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

if maybe happen, your geography is not good, for example, you stay in the village and this person is in the city so you can’t meet them.

If you face any of the problems above discussion, then take advice from experts. So don’t try to be your own doctor and lawyer.

So this principle also helps you to find good experts.

If you choose any experts, then you have to see their 5 years records,

If they have a good record then only then give them money. If not then don’t give money.

See advisor is honest and others ask him investment philosophy that studies in this book. then that better adviser then you know how they got the five years return. (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

by timing the market or investing in the marginal company or following this 15th principle, that is why you have to see his five-year result return.

Three types of the company by following 15 points you get the outstanding company in that.

  1. Large-caps: Those companies have good profits and better financial positions or also called institution stocks because insurance companies invest in them. For example Dow Chemical, Du Pont, and IBM from 1946 to 1956, three companies’ stocks are going 5X in 10 years and dividend returns go from 2.5X to 8 and 9 % in the original period and this is not an unusual period this is a normal period.
  2. Small and young companies: they have outstanding management and research scientist are capable for example, Amplex stock in 4 years is going 8X.
  3. Between large and small-cap companies ( mid-caps): Small companies give you 1000X gain in 10 years. if you are wrong then one dollar penny does not remain, so the skilled investor can be done a mistake.

Large companies losses are usually temporary, if you buy the right time stocks (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

So what is a good time we see in the next chapter?

How much money invested in large-cap companies stocks gives more profit but not that much, those give small companies.

How much money to invest in large-cap companies’ stocks or how much in a small company all depends on you.

Profits from big companies are minimum the total loss outway, that happens in a small company.

if a small company is successful then they become a large company.

* High-dividend yield vs Low-dividend yield growth stocks:

Small investors can not live on dividends, whatever amount of a dividend of high, because their overall investment is small.

A small investor has to be sufficient emergency money for their circumstances. If after that some money is behind then only invest for the long term.

If investors’ circumstances are like they don’t need dividends, then the author says, they have to invest in the company and have to compound their money. (Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits: Chapter 4)

The author’s personal point of view says Small dividend income is not important as after a few increases in maximum income and the author’s sons have a chance to become wealthy in these stocks.

Every stock depends on two things

  1. How skillfully do you apply this 15th principle
  2. Matter of good luck

Good luck is best for one stock, if you have maximum stocks, then luck is an average one. luck only matters when you have only one stock or a few.

the author says previous 35 years that many studies on high dividend stock and low dividend growth stocks. Each stock outperforms in a 5 to 10 years period.

Surprisingly these stocks have increased their dividends such that they were paying greater dividend return on original investment ( though dividend yield is still the low company compared to increased stocks price) than high dividend yield stocks.

So this is all about chapter 4 of common stocks and uncommon profits.

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Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: chapter 1

Hello friends, in today’s article we see chapter 1, clues from the past of common stock and uncommon profits book. In this book, Philip A. Fisher explains how we can learn from history, and how people are makes money in history, in chapter 1, clues from the past of common stocks and uncommon profits book.

Previous introduction part

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: chapter 1

Common stocks and uncommon profits Chapter 1: Clues from the past

Philip A. Fisher says by seeing the past of the stock market, they get

People come stock market for only one reason is that they want to make money in the market. So in past, they use two methods to make money in the market.

  1. By predicting the business cycle, and betting on that prediction, they buy the stock at the bad time and sell the stock at the good time. So they collect the information from their connection and know when the bad time comes and when to buy that bad stocks. Those people have more connections that prediction is going more accurately and they make the money.
  2. Finding outstanding companies and holding them in the good and bad times of the business economy. So this method helps to get a low risk and maximum profits. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

So comparing both methods, you get a good result for the second way than the first one.

And this second method is more profitable for more people, But you have to identify the outstanding company.

So outstanding companies’ opportunities are also available in past and they are also available in present, and they are maximum in number as compared to the present. Because in past there is only a family business present, and they were only run by a family member, whatever the person is they deserve it or not the company, they run the company.

But in no time, if any family business they are not capable to run the business, they hire the most eligible management. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

Another thing is that now businesses are spending more money on research or R&D department. This start form Hitler’s time, in Hitler’s army, there are so many researchers going on weapons, so that’s why they become very famous, so every country knew about the power of R&D. So there from each and every country start developing research and spend money on R& D. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

So people make the R&D of commercial products also. Now the company’s revenue of about 20% has come from those products that are actually not even present or developed.

So doing research is good, if you don’t do the R&D, is more expensive than doing R&D.

Bond:

A bond is a very bad investment in the long term because the simple one is infection.

This inflation is more than the bond interest. Your money is going negative when you choose the bond as a long-term investment.

So the bond is only profitable when you have to know how to time the interest rate of inflation in short term.

So get the coupons on the bonds they are very less in value as you give them and buy bonds.

The author says in past we have to learn five things, (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits: Chapter 1)

  1. those people make the maximum return by identifying the outstanding company, those companies whose sales and profits grow fast than the there industry.
  2. When you have found such a company and hold it for a long period of time, get the maximum results.
  3. this is not necessary for this type of company is small-cap, but company management is intelligent enough to handle the problem of the company, identify the new opportunity for the company to grow, and make the company profitable.
  4. Growth comes from research that, that product is developed from the existing product. ( Growth is associated with knowing how to manage research to bring to market economically worthwhile and usually interrelated product lines.
  5. Opportunities that were present before 25-50 years are now present also and more.

So this knows us from the historical stock market, and money-making strategy.

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Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits

Hello friends, in today's article we see COMMON STOCKS AND UNCOMMON PROFITS book introduction. In this introduction, Philip A. Fisher son write three different prefaces about the COMMON STOCKS AND…