In today’s blog, we see the introduction to behavioral finance from chapter 4 of the book stocks to riches by Parag Parikh. This is a wonderful chapter you should understand how our feeling is work in the stock market and how can we have to get precautions.
so let’s start
Introduction to Behavioural Finance:-Stocks to Riches Chapter 4
In this chapter 4, the author explains behavioral finance with wonderful examples
let’s start with examples of peoples behavior
- “With such positive news from the company why is the stock going down”
- “I am a qualified chartered accountant. I went through the finances of the company and I feel that at the current price, the stocks are too expensive. I would not buy it nor recommend the same to anybody. But I am surprised that in the last two weeks the stocks are up 15 percent.”
- “My friend works with this company. they told me that it was doing exceedingly well and that they have an export order worth crore in hand so I bought the stock. It’s six months and I have been waiting but the stock is going down.”
- ” the company has announced a 1:1 bonus, it’s good news so I bought the stock but the stock went down instead of going up like I thought it would.”
- ” I read the mornings newspaper and was impressed by the finance minister’s speech and his intention to give sops to the economy. the markets greeted the news positively and went up so I bought stocks the next day the markets were down for no reason and I lost on my investment.”
- ” I heard the expert’s comments on T.V. on the current budget presented by the finance minister. they were not very happy with it. I sold my stocks only to find that within a week the markets were up 10 percent. I don’t know why I sold my stocks which I had been holding for the last four years.”
- ” I can not understand the markets. I would rather stay away.”
after his behavioral statement, then the author tells, how this statement happens
the author says, ” Aren’t all these statements familiar you have heard them on perhaps made then yourself. In an ever-changing and uncertain world, we are trying to find some predictions where none exists. The easiest thing to do is to avoid such irrational markets. But then you would be missing out on one of the most favorable modes of investment. (Stocks to Riches Chapter 4)
My sincere advice would be to catch the bull by the horns. confront the problem rather than run away from it. Try to understand why it is happening to you.”
then the author gives their own experience, in dot com bubble time.
the author says, ” during the IT bubble. Too found myself bewildered and confused. The valuations of the dot-com businesses and IT stocks seemed highly inflated. Pundits in the market and the media were pontificating on the new economy and giving convoluted justifications for what was approved to be sheer insanity. I wondered, was the entire world mad and I the only left the same, or was I insane and the world perfectly rational?
I had a client who had invested around 70 lakhs in different IT stocks in 1998 on his friend’s recommendations in 1999, his portfolio value was around Rs. 5 crores when he asked for my advice I told him, to sell as I thought that the PE multiples were very high and the valuations seemed for too stretched.
He did not do so and six months later when we met he informed me that the portfolio value was around Rs. 6 crores. Once again he asked me what he should do I was a bit embarrassed by the question, as I knew that he was, not asking for advice. but telling me indirectly that I was not in sync with the markets. I still insisted that he sell but he did not sometimes later the portfolio value went up to Rs. 8 crores.”
then the author explains why they 3 times give the wrong advice and his friend portfolio value is growing continuously.
the author says, ” this was the frustration I had to go through, of being in the investment business and not able to advise clients correctly. there were times I had sleepless nights fearing that the world was going too fast for me to understand. I doubted my abilities, my competencies, and my knowledge. (Stocks to Riches Chapter 4)
The inability to understand the madness added to the frustration. In fact, I lost quite a few clients as they thought that I was too conservative and not in tune with the new economy.”
then the author tries to find out the answer, for the above going wrong, why this happens
the author says, ” find an answer to this question I did some serious soul searching. my quest led to a fledging little know field called behavioral finance. ”
then the author explains, how emotions change and he is right with his decision, the only people, driven by their emotions. to understand this, the author gives good examples of true stories
the author says, ” this is a true story of a friend who ran a coaching class with one of his colleagues they started off well and within a couple of months they were full to capacity after six months, few students complained to my friend about his colleague’s rude behavior.
The allegation was that he was very short-tempered and arrogant. they wanted him removed or else they would discontinue the classes. My friend was worried. this colleague was his partner and he could not be removed. Moreover, he was a brilliant professional and an able tutor.
After a couple of weeks, the colleague fell ill and was absent for some time. the students were very happy. they thought that they had been successful in removing him.
one day my friend learned that the colleague had a brain tumor and needed an operation. this news shocked my friends, as now his partner would be out of action for quite some time. He informed the students of this calamity. the students were stunned and this shock changed their attitude. Hatred and resentment gave way to empathy and love. they visited him at the hospital and took him flowers. they repented their stand and prayed for his early recovery so that he could come back to teach.”
then the author told, what is the purpose behind this story.
the author says, ” purpose of this story is to understand that is humans we are emotional beings and our behavior and decisions are guided by our emotions. Frequently emotions prompt us to make decisions that may not be in our rational financial interest. Indeed decisions that enrich us emotionally may impoverish us financially.” (Stocks to Riches Chapter 4)
Behavioral finance is the study of how emotions and cognitive errors can cause disasters in our financial affairs.
then the author explains, Classical economic theory vs behavioral economic theory.
Classical Economic theory V/S Behavioural Economic theory:-
the author says, ” Classical theory talks about the efficiency of the markets and people making rational decisions to maximize their profits. It assumes that the markets are efficient and no one can take advantage of its movements. It also assumes that humans are rational beings and will act to maximize their goals.
However behavioral economists believe that the markets are inefficient and human beings are not rational beings.”
then the author, give the examples
the author says, ” Consider the examples if you and I were walking down a busy street in Colaba and you said you saw Rs. 5 coins on the road. I would say it is impossible. so many people walk this read and the markets being efficient someone would have definitely picked it up.
But in reality, we do come across such instances. this shows that the markets are not as efficient as they seem to be further, if we assume that people make rational decisions to maximize profits then how do we explain people giving to charities or throwing a party to celebrate a birthday or an anniversary?
Definitely, this is not about maximizing profits by rational people.
here’s another example of how irrational we can be. the acronym Tips:- stand for To Insure prompt service
If TIPS ensures good service we should be tipping before the service starts. Yet, we give tips at the end of the meal. We even give tips when the service is substandard. (Stocks to Riches Chapter 4)
Tipping is more a custom, we do it mechanically unaware that we are behaving irrationally. yet, in economic theory we are rational beings always intent on maximizing our economic status. this is a common mistake we make without realizing its pure economic implications.”
after this, the author explains behavioral finance and why we react like this.
the author says, ” Behavioural finance researchers seek to bridge the gap between classical economics and psychology to explain how and why people and markets do what they do. Behavioral finance raises a couple of important issues for investors. the first is whether or not it is possible to systematically exploit irrational market behavior when it occurs.
The second issue is how to avoid making sub-optimal decisions as an investor. the goal is to close the gap between how we actually make decisions and how we should make decisions.
- Hold on to stocks, that is crashing
- Sell stocks that are rising
- Ridiculously overdue and Underdue stocks
- jump in late and buy stocks that have peaked in a rally just before the price declines.
- Take desperate risks and gamble wildly when our stocks fall.
- Avoid taking the reasonable risk of buying promising stocks, unless there is an absolutely ‘ assured ‘ profit.
- Never find the right price to buy and sell stocks.
- Prefer fixed income overstocks.
- Buy when we have to sell and sell because others are selling.
then the author explains, how psychology plays a wonderful role.
the author says, ” Psychology can play a strategic role in the financial markets, a fact that is being increasingly recognized.
Students and proponents of behavioral finance create investment strategies that capitalize on irrational investor behavior. They seek to identify market conditions in which investors are likely to overreact or under react to new information,
These mistakes cause underpriced or overpriced securities. The goal of behavioral finance strategies is to invest in or disinvest from these securities before most investors recognize their error, and to benefit from the subsequent jump or fall in prices once they do.”
then lastly author gives the three sources of Alpha for superior performance.
i think you should read this in the book, for buying the book, visit the following link
so this is all about the Introduction of behavior finance, from chapter 4 of the book Stocks to riches.