Annual Reports of the company: Security Analysis

Hello friends, in today’s article we see chapter 3 of the security analysis book. this chapter depends on sources of information. in these sources include the Annual reports of the company also. so let’s see which type of source of information available.

Previous Chapter 2: Problems of stocks Analysis

Annual Reports of The company: Security Analysis
So where we get the information about the company, before that you have to know which type of information we need to analyze the company.

So the author says, ” Analysts required three types of information”

What is Information Required:-Annual Reports of the company: security analysis

I) Terms of Issue

II) Data of Company

III) Data of Industry

so whose try to buy securities what is his terms and what condition they are buying the security? this all question come in this. (Annual Reports of the company)

so let’s starts with the terms of the issue

I) Terms of Issue:- (Annual Reports of the company)

Regarding Bonds, for this, you have to read the Bond indenture ( Bond Indenture is the type of contract and on that, all each and every terms and condition is written.)

Regarding Stocks, Consult the Charter ( In this charter the articles of incorporation present together with by-law)

Those documents are available with the SEC and proper stocks exchange like NYSE

II) Data on Company:

in these, we see the different types of sources that give the information about the company

so let’s see one by one

1) monthly Statement:

In this, some companies show the monthly statement, some not show, so those show, let’s see what the logic behind that of publishing the monthly statement.

we have some problems, If some company performance is improved then they show the monthly statements and those company performance going bad then they close the monthly statement means they discontinuous with these monthly statements reports.

So very few companies only publish the monthly statement

2) Quarterly Statement:

The quarterly statement you can get easily on the stock exchange, In India, you can get on the BSE and NSE stocks exchange websites. (Annual Reports of the company)

So each and every company issues the Quarterly statements, but some businesses like the Sugar business, chemical industry, fertilizers, and agriculture. so this type of company issue the moving figure of 12 months.

Because in four months earning is going high, and in next four-month, the earning comes to zero so if you read this quarterly statements then you get confused with this earnings so for this they issue the moving average figure of 12 months. The Quarterly statement is issued every 3 months later.

3) Semi-Annual Reports:

in this, the semi-annual reports are not the standard procedure to issue every company.

But some company publish the semi-annual reports, in this also have to detail knowledge of half fiscal year.

4) Annual Reports of Company:

Annual reports, so this report is mandatory and you get the more knowledge about the company in this reports.

So in this reports also present the remarks of President of company and vicechairman of the company about how the company does well in past and how to do well in future also means, the outlook of future of the company.

In 1940, some companies only show income statements and some companies show the balance sheet, and some companies show both.

so those show the income statement they don’t show the sales figure of the company in the income statement.

In the balance sheet, tangible and intangible assets are put together and nothing is separate in that time to distinguish. (Annual Reports of the company)

So they don’t show the sales figure because they say, competitors know about their sales figure and their competitor harm the company or business.

But nowadays, this type of problem does not remain.

 

5) Periodic reports to Public Agencies:

The Railroad and Public Utility companies send the reports to the central and state commission.

So in this reports the data is very much detailed as much as they don’t give the detail to the shareholders also.

So those are commission they publish the report regularly and data discloses.

So The author gives some examples of Companies’ commissions that publish the reports on it.

Cram Auto Service, This company give the weekly figure of motor car companies

Vilatant and Gray, This company gives the reports of sugar companies and how much production happens in crop year. (Annual Reports of the company)

The Oil and Gas General, This company show the reports on how much oil and gas is produced.

The Welvag, this company give the detail reports on how much equipment is ordered by companies.

The Dow Jon’s Company, This company give the reports on how much production of steel in weekly basis.

6) Listing Application:

Those are stocks exchange and those are securities exchange, in that so many things are disclosed when the company is going listed.

Or This is not disclosed detailed to the investors and this listing is happening irregularly.

But nowadays this information gets easily.

7) Registration Statement And Prospectuses:

The Registration Statement is bulky and those are the prospectuses they also more than 100 pages.

so this material has some value, you can see them.

8) Miscellaneous Official Reports:

This government division includes like US coal Commission.

This division gives the reports on the coal company.

so this type of division discloses the data that the own company never disclose data before.

Because the company discloses the data. (Annual Reports of the company)

Just like trade commission, that include natural gas pipeline or whatever come in that commission.

9) Statistical and Financial Publications:

An agency like Standard and poor, Moodys

So they issue reports on the company and whatever the data in this they are accurate, but we can’t fully rely on that we have to see the Annual reports of the company.

10) Request for Direct Information from Company:

In this, you can take the direct information from the company.

In this, you have to visit companies website and see their about pages and call them and ask what information you want. (Annual Reports of the company)
So Benjamin Graham says, ” you are the owner of the company, this never forgot. So whatever the big officer are there, you are the employer of them. so act like that”

The authors say, ” If you force the company legally to know about information, sometimes it’s gone expensive or you have to face the Courts.”

But you can ask him about the information that other companies are giving and why not this company is not giving, then you can ask this, so most of the time you get the information.

so lastly we have to see the Which type of industry is

III) Data on Industry:

so what you need to know about the industry, following are some points that help to clarify the which type of industry is.

  1. Histroy Of Industry: IN this you can see the how much old are industry, like now tech industry, this industry is 20 years old, like that you know the history of that and also know the DoT Com bubble. This type of history you have to find.
  2. Current State of Industry: At this point, you have to see what now the industry is doing and what the current status. (Annual Reports of the company)
  3. The prospective state of Industry: At this point, you can see what the perspective of the industry means what is the outlook of the future of this industry, how well do in the future.
  4. Problems of the industry: In this, you have to see the current problem and also the future coming problems in the industry.
  5. Data regarding output, consumption, stocks unfilled order, etc.

so above all types of questions answer, you have to know.

so this is good points to known about industry and you can take the good decision because you know the basics of the industry.

This is all about the Security analysis book, chapter 3 sources of Information.

Security Analysis Book Introduction

Hello friends, in today’s article we see the introduction of the Security analysis book written by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. This book also called as Bible of Value Investing. If you want to do an analysis of stocks individually then read this book. According to warren buffet, this is the best ever written on value investing, this line is written by Warren Buffett on the book cover. If you want to buy this book then click on the below image.

Security Analysis Book Introduction
Security Analysis Book Introduction:

The author gives advice about this book while you are reading this book

About this book(security analysis):-

  • This book is intended for those who have a serious interest in Security Analysis.
  • Not Addressed to complete Novice you should know about basic financial terms to understand this book.
  • So that those are nothing know about financial terms, then this is a book not for you.
  • In this book, we learn, how to analyze stock individually and general principles and standards to select companies.

In the introduction, part author talks about three timelines i.e. 1911-1913, 1923-25, and 1936-38.

Authors say about 1911-1913, this time is normal but market time also changes and shows volatility.

In 1911-13, this timeline the market very less fluctuates.

In 1923-25, this timeline the market is less fluctuated.

In 1936-38, in this timeline, the market is more fluctuation

So in this book whatever we talk about is in the past in 1940, so imagine yourself in 1940.

so let’s start,

The author says, ” Whenever the time is changing, with that market also changing and bring the new problem to the investors.”

This all discussion we see in the introduction part, let’s start with step-by-step which type of problem actually we face in different securities. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

  1. High-Grade bonds and preferred stocks
  2. Speculative bonds and preferred stocks
  3. Common Stocks

so let’s start with first

1) high-Grade bonds and Preferred stocks:

The author says, ” in past people is buying the securities blindly and keep them in a safe place and forget about that securities and after some(year) time they see that securities are doing well, and this strategy is working good.”

But in today’s ( means 1940) Investors have to face three major problems.

A) Safety of principal and interest

B) Future of Interest rates and bond price

C) Value of a dollar

let’s start with the first problem

A) Safety of principal and Interest:

in these we see, in past old idea is to buy securities and say this is the permanent investment and nothing happen this security we buy and keep this safe and then also strategy is working, but these things do not happen yet now.

Now time, nothing is a permanent investment, no one a single thing in which you can put money and forget about that things. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

Principal and interest safety, if you apply very strict standard to buy this security. so this mistake does not happen. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

B) Future of interest rates and Bond prices:

In the past, bond yield is very high, but before 1940, the yield of bonds is going low.

So the author is now in two situations, is that yield is permanent or temporary.

If yield is temporary, then the yield is going to increase so 20-25 bond prices are falling, then we have to be ready for this.

If yield is permanent then this investment is in high-grade bonds and preferred stocks, then this investment is not good enough, Because you get very low on that investment.

The authors say, to be safe from this then you can buy medium-term bonds, those that have 15 years maturity, so those not more longer or not shorter in the year. so the investment is also going in cash as compared to longer periods bonds. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

let’s see the third problem,

C) Value of a Dollar:

If the value of a dollar is down then people buy the common stocks.

this is because, for example, if you buy bonds for five years and you get the time to time got payment.

Let’s suppose you get $20 each after 6 months for long five years

so you get 10 time $2o if the value of the dollar is minimum (means that earning power is going less)

So you earn $20 earnings from bonds, but you can not buy some value of things, before $20 then after $20 means

In the future, you get $20 dollars then work less than past $20 and buy the minimum things as compare to the past $20.

So this is because of dollar price is going down, so this investment is not benefited because your payment is fixed.

When the dollar price goes down, your earning power has to increase to buy some amount of the same things in past and future also.

For this, there is only one solution, which is that put your surplus money in both, bonds as well as stocks.

2) Speculative Bonds and Preferred stocks

In this, we see some problems, lets stats

A) Risk of principal loss, not offset by a higher yield done:

This author says, Losing of principal is not offset by a higher yield, because this type of bond is very risky.

In this bond, we can lose our principal so, that’s why they give maximum yield than before we discussed ( High-grade bonds)

Because High-grade bonds have minimum yield and this has a maximum yield.

So in this bond, only a high yield is not benefited because we required the chance to profit our principal means then we have the advantage of invest in this bond. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

B) Approach them as common stocks with limited claims:

Think like this, this is not senior security of inferior type.

 

3) Common Stocks:

The author defines firstly, which are the good stocks? the good stocks who called those are leading company in their industry and those have good records and in future also have good prospects, and thinking is doing good in future also as like in past. and they are in a leading company.

The author gives for this an example of General Electrics

Other good stocks of those company which is rightly financed and there is future prospects very attractive means past record is not good but future is bright and does a better performance in future. e.g. Abert Laboratories

the author says, ” people are neglecting the quantitative standards nowadays and mostly depends on future and future and says future earning is going high.

if suddenly earning increases then people don’t take average earning, they take high earning points and forget about the past earning and they find out the P/E ratio. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

suppose companies earning is same as first not big much change, then you can take previous year earnings, and take the P/E ratio.

But earning first is very less and suddenly increases, then and you take the same previous ratio this is not the right way.

And some people buy stocks on the only basis of P/E and they think the P/E ratio is standard.

So the authors say, ” P/E ratio is not any standard.”

The P/E ratio is not controlled by your investment. your investment and other people’s investment control the P/E RATIO.

The authors say, ” those are investment trust, they make the speculation in strong company, and by the strong and leading company shares.

You can see nowadays also many famous mutual funds, everyone is doing same and everyone has the same leading company shares.

you can go to any industry that company is leading company, then this investment trust has that company shares.

So those people don’t do any analysis and some people almost forget about analysis they only do speculation in a good and leading company.

the author then gives examples of General Electrics. In 1937 the General Electrics value is about 1.87 billion dollars and after one year in 1938, this company value going to is about 0.78 billion dollar

Means in one year this company lose their value almost 50 %.

So the author says, what happened in 12 months this big company value go down up to 50% destroyed.

The author says, ” This is only happening because in 1937 people are optimistic about the company and those people also pessimistic in 1938 on the company. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

So the company is doing the same as the previous year and now also doing the same, so the company doesn’t to any better in the year and not any do badly in this year to say the reason for that in the year 1938.

Then the author says, “people speak like in 1937, whatever the price of that company is really the price and in 1938 whatever the price of the company is as real like in 1937 of our investment. So this value is going down and people say this is the reality of this company.

If you speak like this, its means, you understand the language or you are stupid.

you don’t have the common sense

In common stocks, there will be four major problems, let’s see one by one

A) General future of Corporate Profits:

the author says, ” No one predicts the future, and people say, ‘ railway stocks are safe and sometime after automobiles company come and compete with daily company and perform well than daily stocks.

so nothing is sure about the future.

So about this, The author says, ” You can pay for only past and current earning and don’t pay for the future earning, try to get future earning in free.”

 

B) Quality differential between companies:

In this problem, Those are good stocks ( leading company stocks) these stocks trade very high multiple in the marketplace, then the secondary companies stocks. (that company is smaller than the leading company)

People think that companies are big, they are going bigger and those companies are small they go vanish or disappear in the coming future.

the author says, ” this company has two problems, the first problem is that their size is big so growth is not increased by the company and another second problem is this return on invested capital they get a minimum return.

Those companies are big, so there are so many companies that try to compete, and get the advantage from that come of leading company if any competitor doesn’t do anything to collapse them then the government does with that leading company. ( understand with examples of Apple and Microsoft, Microsoft company know that government is a mess with us when apple company goes bankrupt, that why Bill gates, buy the non-voting shares of the company and save the apple company while dealing with the Steve jobs. This is the most time happen with the company, so those are leading company that has to be competitive or government will mesh with them.)

C) Interest Rates:

We firstly talk about the bond yield, in the above point in the past there is a high yield, but now the day yield is low.

If this is permanent then the stocks yield average go also minimum. (Security Analysis Book Introduction)

Because, people also invest in stocks, instead of a bond, and then crowd increase and common stocks yield also come.

 

D) Factor of Timing:

The author says, according to him, time the market with successfully is the impossible thing.

Until that right time has come, and when we get the attractive price, the author says, this Is a good time to market.

If this is not happening, then there is no right time to buying the stocks.

The author says, ” timing principles is when the market shows the uptrend means, from now market goes high and they decide now the uptrend, like people to do technical analysis.”

this philosophy of timing is opposite to the investment nature.

This philosophy says, that, ” investor has to be patient until the market is encouraging himself too says, now I am going high and you now do investment in me.

The author says in the conclusion part of the Introduction of security analysis.

Investors should wait for periods of depressed business and market levels to buy representative common stocks. otherwise, he will have to acquire them at prices that the future may cause him to regret.

and Secondary companies offer great opportunities except in the overall bull market. then the leading company in the industry.